Olin Corporation (OLN): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Olin Corporation Waterboy’s Substack by Waterboy. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on OLN. Olin Corporation's share was trading at $21.89 as of July 29^th. OLN’s trailing and forward P/E were 19.62 and 37.31 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Olin Corporation (OLN), trading at $21.26 with a market cap of $2.39 billion and enterprise value of $5.57 billion, is a deeply cyclical yet consistently profitable chemicals and ammunition manufacturer with a remarkable capital return track record. Operating across three segments—Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (56% of 2024 sales), Epoxy (19%), and Winchester (26%)—OLN has proven resilient despite market volatility. The company has paid dividends for 393 consecutive quarters and has aggressively returned capital to shareholders, retiring nearly one-third of its outstanding shares since 2015 while simultaneously reducing net debt.

This disciplined financial stewardship has attracted the attention of elite value investors over the years. Notably, Seth Klarman and Lee Ainslie built positions in the past, and Christopher Bloomstran of Semper Augustus made OLN a meaningful 2.33% holding in 2019 before witnessing a fivefold rebound, after which he partially exited. Interestingly, Bloomstran has recently resumed building his stake, increasing Semper’s position by 0.46% last quarter—a signal of renewed conviction. Despite its extreme stock chart volatility, OLN’s underlying business remains stable, backed by strategic end-market diversification and a disciplined capital allocation framework.

With its history of shareholder-friendly actions, entrenched presence in essential chemical and defense-related industries, and recent re-engagement by prominent long-term investors, Olin appears to offer a compelling opportunity for contrarian investors. The stock now trades near its 52-week low, potentially setting the stage for another cycle of upside, especially if the market begins to reprice its stable cash generation and strong balance sheet more appropriately.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) by Unemployed Value Degen in January 2025, which highlighted its industrial pivot, EBITDA growth strategy, and strong capital returns. The company’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 18% since our coverage, as the transformation thesis began to play out. Waterboy shares a similar thesis but emphasizes OLN’s stability and diversified industrial exposure.

Olin Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 33 hedge fund portfolios held OLN at the end of the first quarter which was 38 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of OLN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.