Will a Strong Commercial Business Aid AIG in Q2 Earnings?

American International Group, Inc. AIG is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 6, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.58 per share, which indicates an improvement of 36.2% from the prior-year quarter’s number. 

The second-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed no upward estimate revisions against five downward movements over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $6.8 billion, implying 2.7% growth from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

AIG’s Earnings Surprise History

American International’s bottom line beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 1.73%. This is depicted in the chart below:

American International Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

American International Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American International Group, Inc. Quote

What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for American International

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for American International this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Earnings ESP: American International has an Earnings ESP of +1.40% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.61 per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.58. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: AIG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.  

Factors Likely to Shape AIG’s Q2 Results

In the second quarter, American International’s revenues are expected to have benefited on the back of higher net premiums earned from the General Insurance business. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned in General Insurance is pegged at $6 billion, indicating 3.7% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. 

The General Insurance business is likely to have gained from the strong performances of its North America Commercial, International Commercial and Global Personal segments. The North America Commercial unit is expected to have been aided by new business growth, strong retention rates and strength in Glatfelter and Retail Property.

Meanwhile, strong contributions from Property and Global Specialty are expected to drive the results of the International Commercial segment. The Global Personal is expected to have benefited on the back of rate hikes and new business growth in Personal Auto. 

However, higher catastrophe losses across the three segments are likely to dampen the underwriting results of the General Insurance business in the to-be-reported quarter. 

The consensus mark for General Insurance’s adjusted pretax income stands at $1.3 billion, implying 13.9% growth year over year. 

American International’s overall net investment income is likely to have suffered a blow due to lower returns from alternative investments and other invested assets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income is pegged at $946 million, which indicates a 4.4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. 

Despite numerous cost-cutting initiatives, AIG’s margins are expected to have been hurt by an elevated expense base in the second quarter, resulting from higher losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred.  

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies from the Finance space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. PGY has an Earnings ESP of +2.19% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 69 cents per share, which indicates a nearly seven-fold increase from the prior-year quarter.

Pagaya Technologies’ earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 12.91%. 

StepStone Group Inc. STEP currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.63% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for STEP’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 44 cents per share, which implies an 8.3% decline from the year-ago quarter’s figure.  

StepStone’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and matched the mark once, the average surprise being 20.86%.

Americold Realty Trust, Inc. COLD has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COLD’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 34 cents per share, which implies a 10.5% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s figure.  

Americold Realty’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, matched the mark once and missed the same in the remaining occasion, the average surprise being 3.79%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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