Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Upstart Holdings, Inc. on TickerTrends Research’s Substack by TickerTrends. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on UPST. Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s share was trading at $67.14 as of August 6^th.

Upstart Holdings (UPST) appears to be amid a meaningful turnaround, as evidenced by rising digital engagement and consumer interest. According to TickerTrends’ social and digital tracking tools, consumer interest in Upstart has surged +46.9% YoY, with a notable +12.9% uptick in just the past month, marking 37 consecutive weeks of growth. This resurgence coincides with improving sentiment around Upstart’s core proposition—using AI-driven models to assess creditworthiness beyond traditional FICO scores.

After a challenging 2023, when higher interest rates and tighter bank lending conditions hindered loan origination, Upstart is now benefiting from a shifting macro backdrop. Consumer demand for credit remains strong, while traditional banks have grown more conservative. As a result, many borrowers are migrating toward alternative platforms like Upstart that offer streamlined, digital approval experiences.

This is especially relevant as credit card APRs stay elevated, prompting consumers to explore personal loans for debt consolidation or managing higher living costs. Upstart’s underwriting model, which purports to approve more borrowers with lower default rates than legacy systems, has become increasingly attractive in this environment of cautious capital deployment. While the company has not yet revised its guidance, such strong digital demand often precedes improving financial metrics.

With signals pointing to a likely rebound in loan originations and marketplace revenues in the latter half of 2025, the upcoming earnings call will be critical. If Upstart can translate digital interest into economic throughput, investors could be looking at a reacceleration narrative with potentially material upside.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Upstart Holdings, Inc. by Unconventional Value in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s AI-driven credit models, data advantage, and structural improvements. The stock has appreciated approximately 21% since our coverage, as macro conditions improved. TickerTrends shares a similar view but emphasizes rising digital interest as a leading indicator of recovery.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 33 hedge fund portfolios held UPST at the end of the first quarter which was 39 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of UPST as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.