Brinker to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Brinker International, Inc. EAT is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Aug. 13, 2025, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, adjusted earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3% and 3.4%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, both metrics increased 114.5% and 27.2%, respectively.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, delivering an average surprise of 24.5%.

EAT’s Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter EPS has increased to $2.43 from $2.39 in the past 30 days. The expected figure indicates a rise of 50.9% from the year-ago quarter’s $1.61 cents per share.

Brinker International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Brinker International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Brinker International, Inc. Quote

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.43 billion. The metric implies growth of 18.6% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Factors Likely to Shape Brinker’s Quarterly Results

Revenues

Brinker’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenues are expected to have increased year over year, driven by effective marketing strategies, improved menu pricing, higher traffic and a favorable menu item mix. The company’s focus on enhancing core menu offerings at Chili’s, such as its “core four” and “five to drive” strategies, is expected to have boosted top-line performance. Additionally, Maggiano’s operational improvements, including service speed enhancements and menu updates, are likely to have contributed to sales growth.

Brinker’s digitalization initiatives and the emphasis on social media campaigns targeting younger demographics might have contributed to guest check and comps growth in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model predicts fiscal fourth-quarter comps to rise 18.1% year over year.

While Maggiano’s revenues are estimated to increase 1.8% to $126.1 million, our model predicts Chili’s revenues to grow 18.9% year over year to $1.29 billion. The combined impact of pricing strategies, menu innovation and operational upgrades is anticipated to have strengthened EAT’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenue base.

Margins

Brinker’s bottom line is anticipated to have improved year over year, supported by strategic pricing initiatives, effective cost management and a focus on higher-margin menu items. The company’s emphasis on balancing value offerings (with margin expansion), adapting to changing consumer preferences and continued menu innovation is expected to have supported margin growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, inflationary pressures on labor and commodities, along with elevated operating costs, might have partially offset margin gains. Our model predicts total operating costs to increase 14.7% year over year to $1.28 billion.

What Our Model Says About EAT Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Brinker this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

EAT’s Earnings ESP: Brinker has an Earnings ESP of +0.93%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

EAT’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Dillard's DDS has an Earnings ESP of +23.90% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. 

DDS is expected to register a 17.43% decrease in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported an earnings beat in three of the trailing four quarters, missing on one occasion, delivering an average surprise of 12.7%.

Bath & Body Works, Inc. BBWI currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.07% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

BBWI reported an earnings beat in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 4.74%. Its earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decrease 2.7%.

Abercrombie & Fitch ANF has an Earnings ESP of +2.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

ANF is expected to register a 9.6% decrease in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. It reported an earnings beat in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 11.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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