Oracle's 2025 Rally Is Only Half Over: 5 Reasons Why

Up roughly $75 YTD in early August, Oracle’s (NYSE: ORCL) 2025 stock price rally is only half over.

The technicals, analysts' trends, and fundamental outlook support the argument for another $75 stock price increase, and the trends are all positive.

The likely outcome is that Oracle’s stock price will advance by more than $75 over the mid to long term, providing investors a significant upside.

Continued demand for cloud infrastructure, AI integration, and database solutions could serve as key catalysts, while Oracle’s strong cash flow and history of shareholder returns add further support to the bullish case.

If these tailwinds persist, the stock could remain one of the tech sector’s standout performers into 2026.

The Technical Outlook for Oracle’s Stock Price Is Robust

The technical factors are robust and suggest a $75 move is not only possible but will likely be quick and sharp, potentially occurring before the end of 2025. The weekly chart shows an aggressive-looking Bull Flag/Triangle pattern that is compounded by rising volume and convergent MACD.

Convergent MACD is a sign of a strong and strengthening market, so, with Oracle’s reading at historically high levels, investors can assume a high degree of market commitment. 

Likewise, the chart of monthly price action is equally bullish, revealing a steady uptrend that began to accelerate in 2021. Since then, the market for Oracle has ramped steadily higher with MACD and volume converging the entire way. Because the outlook for Oracle’s revenue and earnings growth is still in discovery, these technical trends will likely continue for at least another quarter. 

Institutional Trends Support the Uptrend in Oracle Stock

The institutions own only 44% of Oracle’s stock but support the price action. Co-founder Larry Ellison is reported to own another 40%+ of the shares, and he’s not selling, making Oracle a tightly held company with a robust institutional tailwind unlikely to end soon.

The strength is seen in the volume, which is elevated and rising as of early Q3, and the breadth of action. While Ellison holds most of the shares, the institutional holdings are spread across nearly 5,000 organizations, including ETFs, retirement and mutual funds, and wealth managers.

The Analysts Trends Support and Lead Oracle’s Market: New Highs Are Likely

Oracle’s analyst trends can be summed up in a single statement: Oracle is ranked prominently on MarketBeat’s list of Most Upgraded Stocks.

The data reveals steadily increasing coverage, firming sentiment with a bullish bias to the Moderate Buy rating, and an uptrend in the price target revisions. 

MarketBeat tracks 34 analysts, with 76% rating at Buy and none at Sell.

The price target, up 5% in July and 52% in the preceding 12 months, lags the price action in early August but is supportive, while the recent revisions are leading to the high-end range. 

That puts this stock at $325, roughly $75 above the August highs and critical resistance target. 

Oracle’s Business Momentum Continues to Grow

Oracle’s business is fundamentally sound, with revenue growing by double digits annually and supported by a robust pipeline. The latest news includes a partnership with DigitalReality to help accelerate digitization and AI adoption, potential for a new deal with Skydance-Paramount, and expanded demand for the Stargate Project. 

The deal with Digital Realty and the potential deal with Skydance-Paramount demonstrate the company’s utility across various sectors, industries, and verticals, while the Stargate Project ensures long-term strength. Oracle has already begun delivering technology for the initial build, portions of which are already operational, an additional 4.5 GW are now in the pipeline, and a half dozen additional campuses are expected to be built over time. 

Oracle’s FQ1 Results Will Be a Catalyst

The catalyst for the move will likely be the FQ1 2026 results, which are expected to be released in early September. The analysts' revisions are mixed, roughly half increasing and half decreasing their forecasts, but the outlook is solid. 

The group forecasts revenue growth to accelerate sequentially, and compared to last year, the actual results will likely outperform the consensus. A critical factor in the company’s stock price rise this year is the growing deal pipeline and remaining performance obligation (RPO), which has been outpacing revenue growth by a wide margin and is up more than 40% in the FQ4 report. 

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