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Healthcare services company Astrana Health beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q2 CY2025, with sales up 34.7% year on year to $654.8 million. On top of that, next quarter’s revenue guidance ($945 million at the midpoint) was surprisingly good and 17.2% above what analysts were expecting. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.58 per share was 21.1% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy ASTH? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
Astrana Health’s second quarter was marked by robust revenue expansion and strong operational execution, which was reflected in the positive market reaction following the earnings release. Management attributed the double-digit growth to sustained momentum in its Care Partners segment and a pronounced shift toward full-risk contract arrangements. CEO Brandon Sim highlighted that 78% of revenue now comes from these full-risk models, up from 60% a year ago, emphasizing the company’s focus on coordinated care and end-to-end management. Sim noted, “Our delegated model gives us real-time visibility into utilization and claims, allowing for earlier, more coordinated interventions.”
Looking ahead, Astrana Health’s updated guidance is anchored by the integration of Prospect Health and ongoing expansion of its full-risk membership base. Management expects incremental EBITDA growth as Prospect’s operations are standardized and technology platforms are merged. Sim explained, “We expect further EBITDA expansion in 2026 as our full risk cohorts mature and synergies from the Prospect integration ramp.” Despite policy headwinds in Medicaid and health insurance exchanges, the company believes its diversified footprint and disciplined approach to payer negotiations will help mitigate risk and support profitability.
Management attributed the quarter’s performance to organic growth in core business lines, progress in integrating full-risk contracts, and disciplined medical cost management despite a dynamic policy landscape.
Astrana Health’s outlook is shaped by the Prospect integration, continued transition to full-risk models, and strategic cost management amid evolving policy headwinds.
Looking ahead, the StockStory team will focus on (1) progress in realizing Prospect Health integration synergies and operational alignment, (2) signs that full-risk contract migration continues to drive both revenue and improved cost controls, and (3) the outcome of Medicaid contract negotiations and how the company adapts to policy-driven enrollment changes. Execution on these fronts, alongside further technology adoption in care management, will be key indicators of Astrana’s ongoing performance.
Astrana Health currently trades at $28.98, up from $21.46 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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