Should You Buy Aris Mining Stock After a 70% Surge in 6 Months?

Aris Mining Corporation's ARMN shares have popped 70.1% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 35.9% and the S&P 500’s increase of 4.4%. The rally has been driven by a spike in gold prices and ARMN’s strong operating performance. Among its peers, B2Gold Corp. BTG and AngloGold Ashanti plc AU have racked up gains of 39% and 70.8%, respectively, over the same period.

ARMN’s 6-month Price Performance

Technical indicators show that ARMN stock eclipsed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 4, 2025. It is also currently trading above the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA continues to read higher than the 200-day SMA following a golden crossover on April 10, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.

ARMN Trades Above 50-Day SMA

Let’s take a look at ARMN’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.

Growth Projects Underpin ARMN’s Production Upside

ARMN is rapidly establishing itself as a formidable player in the Latin American gold mining sector. Since its inception in September 2022, the company has demonstrated a strong blend of operational efficiency and strategic expansion. Aris Mining reported a solid 20% year-over-year increase in gold production to 58,652 ounces for the second quarter of 2025. Production also rose 7% from the prior quarter. This growth, powered by the Segovia Operations in Colombia, positions ARMN favorably to achieve its full-year production target of 230,000-275,000 ounces. 

The Segovia Operations in Colombia, a cornerstone of Aris Mining's portfolio, is a key contributor to the company’s production upside. ARMN is advancing its expansion projects, which are expected to further drive its output. 

Production rates are expected to crank up in the second half of 2025 following the recent completion of the installation and commissioning of the Segovia plant expansion, which would lead to an increase in Segovia's processing capacity by 50% to 3,000 tons per day. Segovia is expected to produce 210,000-250,000 ounces this year and 300,000 ounces in 2026. At the Marmato Lower Mine, construction is progressing, targeting a processing capacity of 5,000 tons per day, with the ramp-up scheduled to start during the back half of 2026. ARMN is targeting an annual production rate of roughly 500,000 ounces of gold from Segovia Operations and Marmato Complex. 

Aris Mining also holds a 51% stake in the Soto Norte project in Colombia and fully owns the Toroparu project in Guyana, further diversifying its asset portfolio. A pre-feasibility study is underway at Soto Norte with an expected completion in the third quarter of 2025. At Toroparu, the company has launched a new study to update the development plan. As ARMN progresses with its expansion initiatives, it is well-placed to achieve its ambitious production target and strengthen its standing in the Latin American gold mining industry.

Rallying Gold Prices to Drive ARMN’s Profitability   

Gold prices are up roughly 27% this year, largely attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies. Gold prices shot up to a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22. While gold prices have fallen from their April 2025 high, they remain favorable, aided by geopolitical tensions, and are currently hovering above the $3,300 per ounce level. Increased purchases by central banks and geopolitical tensions are factors expected to help the yellow metal sustain the rally. Higher gold prices should boost ARMN’s profitability and drive cash flow generation.

Aris Mining’s Solid Financial Health Aids Expansion Moves

Aris Mining boasts a strong balance sheet and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects. The company ended the second quarter with a healthy cash balance of roughly $310 million. ARMN received $53.4 million of proceeds from the exercise of ARIS.WT.A Listed warrants in the quarter and also obtained an additional $60.5 million in proceeds from    the exercise of these warrants in July 2025, bolstering its balance sheet for future investments and supporting Segovia and Marmato expansions. In the second quarter, the company generated $73.8 million in cash flow after accounting for sustaining capital and income taxes, allowing it to fund its strategic growth and expansion initiatives.

A Look at Aris Mining Stock’s Valuation

The ARMN stock looks attractive from a valuation perspective. ARMN is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 4X, a roughly 70.3% discount when stacked up with the industry’s average of 13.46X. Aris Mining is also trading at a discount to B2Gold and AngloGold Ashanti. Aris Mining and B2Gold have a Value Score of A each, while AngloGold Ashanti has a Value Score of B.

ARMN’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, BTG and AU

What ARMN’s Earnings Estimates Indicate

Earnings estimates for ARMN have been revised upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised higher over the same time frame. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARMN’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 264.7% and 73.8%, respectively.

How Should Investors Play the ARMN Stock?

Aris Mining is advancing several key development projects, including the Segovia mill expansion, to enhance production. Rising earnings estimates and solid earnings growth prospects are the other positives. Higher gold prices are also expected to drive ARMN’s performance. A solid balance sheet also supports its expansion initiatives. Aris Mining’s cheap valuation should also lure investors seeking value. We recommend investors to accumulate this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock as it has solid growth prospects.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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