3 Consumer Stocks We Keep Off Our Radar

Consumer discretionary businesses are levered to the highs and lows of economic cycles. This sensitive demand profile can cause discretionary stocks to plummet when macro uncertainty enters the fray, and over the past six months, the industry has shed 4.1%. This drop was disappointing since the S&P 500 climbed 5.4%.

While some companies have durable competitive advantages that enable them to grow consistently, the odds aren’t great for the ones we’re analyzing today. On that note, here are three consumer stocks we’re swiping left on.

Under Armour (UAA)

Market Cap: $2.13 billion

Founded in 1996 by a former University of Maryland football player, Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) is an apparel brand specializing in sportswear designed to improve athletic performance.

Why Do We Avoid UAA?

1. Constant currency revenue growth has disappointed over the past two years and shows demand was soft
2. Projected sales decline of 2.5% over the next 12 months indicates demand will continue deteriorating
3. Diminishing returns on capital from an already low starting point show that neither management’s prior nor current bets are going as planned

Under Armour’s stock price of $5.05 implies a valuation ratio of 16.2x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with UAA, check out our full research report (it’s free).

Gray Television (GTN)

Market Cap: $590.5 million

Specializing in local media coverage, Gray Television (NYSE:GTN) is a broadcast company supplying digital media to various markets in the United States.

Why Do We Pass on GTN?

1. Sales stagnated over the last two years and signal the need for new growth strategies
2. Capital intensity will likely ramp up in the next year as its free cash flow margin is expected to contract by 5.3 percentage points
3. High net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 5× increases the risk of forced asset sales or dilutive financing if operational performance weakens

At $5.75 per share, Gray Television trades at 0.7x forward EV-to-EBITDA. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than GTN.

Malibu Boats (MBUU)

Market Cap: $679.4 million

Founded in California in 1982, Malibu Boats (NASDAQ:MBUU) is a manufacturer of high-performance sports boats and luxury watercrafts.

Why Is MBUU Risky?

1. Performance surrounding its boats sold has lagged its peers
2. Performance over the past five years shows each sale was less profitable, as its earnings per share fell by 17.4% annually
3. Diminishing returns on capital from an already low starting point show that neither management’s prior nor current bets are going as planned

Malibu Boats is trading at $34.79 per share, or 11.9x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why MBUU doesn’t pass our bar.

Stocks We Like More

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