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Chicago, IL – August 13, 2025 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses The Cheesecake Factory Inc. CAKE, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL and BJ's Restaurants, Inc. BJRI.
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2702384/3-restaurant-stocks-that-keep-soaring-despite-industry-challenges
The Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry continues to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment, high costs and dismal traffic. However, the industry is benefiting from an increase in sales, driven by rapid menu price hikes, average check growth and expansion efforts.
Industry participants also benefit from partnerships with delivery channels and digital platforms. Stocks like The Cheesecake Factory Inc., Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. and BJ's Restaurants, Inc. are well-poised to benefit from the aforementioned factors.
The Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry comprises several owners and operators of casual, upscale casual, fine dining, full-service and fast-casual restaurants. Some industry participants operate as roasters, marketers and retailers of specialty coffee. Some companies develop, operate and franchise quick-service restaurants worldwide.
A few restaurant operators offer cooked-to-order dishes, which include noodles and pasta, soups, salads and appetizers. Some industry players develop, own, operate, manage and license restaurants and lounges worldwide. A few companies also run technology-enabled Japanese restaurants in the United States and provide Japanese cuisine through a revolving sushi service model.
Challenging Market Landscape: The industry is currently grappling with a challenging macroeconomic environment, led by persistent inflation and reduced consumer purchasing power. The restaurant industry has been facing declining traffic for quite some time. A rapid increase in menu prices is the primary reason behind traffic erosion. This decline highlights the ongoing challenges that the industry faces in maintaining customer counts, especially as consumers grow frustrated with rising prices.
Intense competition and high wages are concerning. The industry continues to bear increased expenses, which have been affecting margins. Higher pre-opening costs, marketing expenses and costs related to sales-boosting initiatives are exerting pressure on the company's margins.
Robust Sales Growth: Restaurant sales continued their strong momentum in April, as consumers remained committed to dining out despite economic uncertainties. According to preliminary U.S. Census Bureau data, eating and drinking places generated $98.7 billion in seasonally adjusted sales in June, marking a 0.6% increase from May's upwardly revised total of $98.2 billion.
Digitalization to Drive Growth: Restaurant operators' focus on digital innovation, sales-building initiatives and cost-saving efforts has been a catalyst. With the growing influence of the Internet, digital innovation is the need of the hour. Restaurant operators constantly partner with delivery channels and digital platforms to drive incremental sales. Partnerships with delivery channels like DoorDash, Grubhub, Postmates and Uber Eats, and the rollout of self-service kiosks and loyalty programs continue to drive growth.
Off-Premise Sales Act as Key Catalyst: The industry is gaining from the increase in off-premise sales, which primarily include delivery, takeout, drive-thru, catering, meal kits and off-site options, such as kiosks and food trucks. Most restaurant operators have initiated the testing of ghost or virtual kitchens. The idea of providing off-premise offerings and a connected curbside service has been garnering positive customer feedback.
The Zacks Restaurant industry is grouped within the broader Retail-Wholesale sector. It carries a Zacks Industry Rank #188, which places it in the bottom 23% of more than 244 Zacks industries.
The group's Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates dull near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than two to one.
The industry's position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries results from a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let us take a look at the industry's recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.
The Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry has underperformed the Zacks S&P 500 Composite and its sector over the past year.
Over this period, the industry has grown 5.7% compared with the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's jump of 20.3%. The sector has risen 25.7%.
Based on the forward 12-month P/E, a commonly used multiple for valuing restaurant stocks, the industry is currently trading at 24.69X compared with the S&P 500's 22.69X. It is below the sector's forward 12-month P/E ratio of 25.05X.
Over the last five years, the industry traded as high as 33.10X and as low as 22.24X, the median being 25.64X.
BJ's Restaurants: The company is benefiting from efforts focused on growing traffic, enhancing operational efficiency and improving restaurant-level profitability. In second-quarter 2025, the company recorded 2.9% year-over-year comparable sales growth, driven by a 3.3% increase in traffic. The company expects its profitability improvement efforts to support margin gains in the second half of 2025. Also, emphasis on remodeling and menu innovations bodes well.
Shares of this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company have gained 17.2% in the past year. BJRI's 2025 sales and earnings are anticipated to rise 3.2% and 38.8%, respectively, year over year. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Cheesecake Factory: The company is benefiting from higher consumer demand, restaurant openings, strong Flower Child performance and operational efficiency. Also, the focus on FRC-related differentiated concepts and emerging brands bodes well. Given the strong consumer demand, an attractive unit profile and solid infrastructure support, the company is optimistic about growth in the upcoming periods.
Shares of this Zacks Rank #2 company have surged 69.1% in the past year. CAKE's 2025 sales and earnings are anticipated to rise 5.1% and 9.3%, respectively, year over year.
Cracker Barrel: The company's prospects are gaining from menu innovation, favorable menu pricing, digital initiatives and strategic remodels. Currently, it is focusing on enhancing its menu through a back-of-house optimization initiative aimed at driving efficiencies that boost profitability. Also, increased focus on the off-premise business model bodes well for its long-term prospects.
Shares of this Zacks Rank #2 company have gained 23.1% in the past year. CBRL's fiscal 2025 sales and earnings are anticipated to rise 0.1% and down 9.1%, respectively, year over year.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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