Atlassian Corporation (TEAM): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Atlassian Corporation on Compounding Your Wealth’s Substack by Sergey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TEAM. Atlassian Corporation's share was trading at $168.06 as of August 8^th. TEAM’s forward P/E was 39.53 according to Yahoo Finance.

Atlassian delivered a strong Q2 2025 performance, reporting $1.38 billion in revenue, up 22.3% year-over-year and beating estimates by 2.2%. Subscription revenue surged 22.8% to $1.31 billion, driven largely by cloud growth, which reached $928 million, a 25.7% increase. The company sustained robust profitability with gross margins expanding 1.9 points to 85.3% and operating margins rising 4.6 points to 24.3%. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.98 surpassed expectations by 16.7%. Net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) soared 1,695.5% year-over-year to $159 million, supported by strong premium and enterprise edition upgrades, which grew 40%.

Atlassian’s AI features saw rapid adoption, with monthly active users climbing 50% quarter-over-quarter and token usage increasing fivefold, reinforcing AI as a key engagement driver embedded across its platform. The launch of Teamwork Collection, a bundled cloud suite, exceeded expectations with significant deployments at major automotive, semiconductor, and gaming firms. Enterprise sales gained momentum with a record number of $1 million+ ACV deals, more than doubling year-over-year, highlighting deepening penetration in large accounts. However, free cash flow (FCF) margin declined 10.5 points to 26%, and Q4 FCF fell 13% due to timing shifts in billing and collections, reflecting the transition to annual billing and multiyear deal linearity.

Guidance for Q3 2025 revenue slightly missed estimates, reflecting caution around macro uncertainties and migration complexities in large enterprises. Despite these near-term headwinds, Atlassian reaffirmed its long-term targets of 20% CAGR revenue growth and 25%+ operating margins by FY2027, underpinned by continued investments in AI, cloud migration, and sales execution. Overall, Atlassian’s results showcase durable growth, strong customer expansion, and a well-positioned product portfolio driving secular cloud adoption trends.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Atlassian Corporation by Deep Value Returns in May 2025, highlighting strong free cash flow and long-term growth targets. Since then, the stock has depreciated about 19% amid modest near-term growth. Sergey shares a similar view but emphasizes Q2 2025 results, AI adoption, and cloud growth, while noting some near-term cash flow challenges.

Atlassian Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 82 hedge fund portfolios held TEAM at the end of the first quarter which was 75 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of TEAM as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None.