Can Carvana Deliver 40% CAGR in Unit Sales Over the Next 5 Years?

Carvana Co. CVNA is focusing on several key operational areas to achieve its goal of 40% compound annual growth in unit sales over the next five years. Reconditioning, which is considered the most operationally demanding part of the business, is a major focus. 

Instead of relying solely on existing inspection centers, the company has integrated 12 ADESA sites over the past year. While this has required upfront investment, such as staffing and operating at lower utilization, it has expanded inventory access and reduced vehicle transport distances. These steps lay a strong foundation and set the stage for more scalable and efficient growth in the future.

Logistics, the second most complex area, has seen significant efficiency improvements. Carvana has successfully reduced average miles traveled per vehicle, even as sales have increased. Carvana’s logistics team has a clear plan to continue supporting long-term growth while maintaining efficiency. 

Market operations, another key area, is focused on improving delivery speeds and building capacity ahead of demand. The company has been using its large data sets to fuel AI models. In customer care, AI can help Carvana communicate with customers more effectively, enhancing the overall customer experience while also reducing costs. CVNA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. 

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Although Carvana’s competitors like Group 1 Automotive, Inc. GPI and Lithia Motors, Inc. LAD have not set any ambitious goals for annual vehicle sales, they have been expanding their geographical footprints to boost sales and capture market share. 

In the first quarter of 2025, Group 1 purchased one Lexus and three Toyota dealerships in the United Kingdom, which are projected to contribute about $100 million in annual revenues. In May, GPI added three more dealerships, Lexus and Acura locations in Florida and a Mercedes-Benz store in Texas, expected to generate $330 million annually. In August, GPI acquired Mercedes-Benz of Buckhead, which is anticipated to bring in $210 million per year. So far in 2025, GPI has acquired $640 million in annualized revenues. 

In June, Lithia added two Mercedes-Benz dealerships located in Collierville, TN, and Jackson, MS, strengthening its presence in the southeastern region of the United States. In March, Lithia acquired Elk Grove Subaru in California. Altogether, Lithia’s acquisitions to date in 2025 are expected to contribute around $400 million in annualized revenues. The company is focused on buying large, high-performing stores in the Southeast and South-Central United States, where profitability is strong.

Carvana’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Carvana has outperformed the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry year to date. CVNA shares have gained 75.9% compared with the industry’s growth of 13%.

 
From a valuation perspective, Carvana appears overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 3.47, higher than its industry’s 2.29.

 
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 EPS has moved up 3 cents and 41 cents, respectively, in the past 30 days. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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