The industrial sector in 2025 has been shaped by a blend of cyclical recovery, policy stimulus, trade-driven structural shifts and volatile PMI movement. The early-year optimism faded mid-summer before roaring back by August. Investors have rewarded the sector’s exposure to resilient industrial demand, supply-chain adjustment strategies and secular growth opportunities, even amid geopolitical uncertainties and cost pressures.
Manufacturing PMI and XLI: The Sector’s Pulse
As of July, the S&P 500 Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) delivered a year-to-date return of 16.1%, while its 12-month performance was 20.6%. However, Manufacturing PMI readings have captured a story of volatility. The year began on an optimistic note. In January, the S&P Global’s PMI ticked up to 50.1, its highest since mid-2024, suggesting renewed expansion. However, by July, conditions deteriorated sharply. PMI fell back into contraction, dropping to 49.8 and also around 48 for the ISM version, marking the first declines of the year amid cooling demand and tariff-related stress. August brought a rebound, with the S&P Global PMI surging to 53.3, its strongest showing since May 2022. This was driven by a sharp increase in new orders, inventories and hiring, while supply-chain pressures eased.
Unpacking the Macro and Geopolitical Forces
Trade and tariffs have loomed large. The ongoing tariff regime, especially under President Trump, lifted input prices and intensified inflationary pressures. This also encouraged firms to reshore production or build resilience through inventories and supplier diversification, boosting industrial demand and activity. Policy tailwinds such as infrastructure plans and incentives for on-shoring or manufacturing revitalization have also energized investor sentiment. Increased spending in infrastructure, defense and reshoring efforts has supported industrial earnings outlooks and sector valuation multiples. It may thus be prudent to invest in the sector.
Our Choices
The stocks below have a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy). The search was also narrowed down with a VGM Score of A or B. Here, V stands for Value, G for Growth and M for Momentum. The score is a weighted combination of these three metrics. Such a score allows one to eliminate the negative aspects of stocks and select winners. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU is a semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products company. KALU’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 84.9%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 11.3% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #2 company has a VGM Score of A.
AGCO Corporation AGCO is an agricultural equipment and replacement parts company. AGCO’s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 36.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 13.8% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a VGM Score of B.
Hudson Technologies, Inc. HDSN is a solutions provider to the refrigeration industry. HDSN’s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 19.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 27% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #2 company has a VGM Score of A.
Bottom Line
The U.S. industrial sector, thus, looks attractive for investment in 2025. Policy support through infrastructure spending, on-shoring incentives and defense outlays is creating durable demand, while easing supply-chain pressures improves efficiency. Although tariffs and geopolitical frictions add volatility, the sector has shown resilience and is positioned to benefit from structural shifts in global trade and domestic manufacturing. For investors seeking exposure to cyclical growth and long-term industrial revitalization, the outlook remains favorable.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
AGCO Corporation (AGCO): Free Stock Analysis Report Hudson Technologies, Inc. (HDSN): Free Stock Analysis Report Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
