MTG Outperforms Industry, Hits 52-Week High: How to Play the Stock

MGIC Investment Corporation MTG hit a 52-week high of $28.67 on Aug. 29. Shares closed at $27.83 after gaining 17.4% year to date, outperforming the industry, the sector, and the Zacks S&P 500 composite.

MGIC Investment has outperformed its peers, including Enact Holdings, Inc. ACT, Horace Mann Educators Corporation HMN, and Old Republic International Corporation ORI. Shares of ACT, HMN, and ORI have gained 16.3%, 17.2% and 10.4%, respectively, year to date.

With a capitalization of $6.41 billion, the average number of shares traded in the last three months was 2.1 million.

MTG Trading Above 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages

Shares of MGIC Investment are trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) of $26.86 and $25.33, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data.

MTG Shares are Affordable

MGIC Investment shares are trading at a price-to-book value of 1.25X, lower than the industry average of 2.48X, the Finance sector’s 4.29X, and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite’s 8.4X. Its pricing, at a discount to the industry average, gives a better entry point to investors. The stock has a Value Score of B. This style score helps find the most attractive value stocks.

MTG’s Favorable Return on Capital

The return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing over the last few quarters, as the company has raised its capital investment during the same period. This reflects MTG’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC was 11.2% in the trailing 12 months, better than the industry average of 2%.

MTG’s Growth Projection Encourages

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGIC Investment's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 3.4%. The consensus estimate for 2025 revenues is pegged at $1.23 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 0.9%. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 1.99% and 1.95%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates. 

Earnings have grown 12% in the past five years, better than the industry average of 9.8%.

Earnings Surprise History

MGIC Investment surpassed earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average being 14.12%.

Optimistic Analyst Sentiment on MTG

Each of the three analysts covering the stock has raised estimates for 2025 and one analyst for 2026 over the past 30 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 moved 4.1% and 0.6% north, respectively, in the last 30 days.

Factors Driving MTG

New business and solid annual persistency should drive the insurance-in-force portfolio. A higher level of new and existing home sales, an increased percentage of homes purchased for cash, and an improved level of refinance activity should help MGIC Investment grow. 

MTG has been witnessing a declining pattern of claim filings. A decline in losses and claims will strengthen the balance sheet and improve this mortgage insurer’s financial profile.

The largest mortgage insurer in the United States is improving its capital position with capital contributions, reinsurance transactions, and cash position. Both leverage and times interest earned ratios have been improving.

A solid capital position supports MTG in wealth distribution. The company currently has $742.2 million remaining in its authorization kitty through December 2026. Its share repurchase activity reflects continued strong mortgage credit performance.

Wrapping Up: Keep On Holding

Higher premiums, outstanding credit quality, and new business will continue to induce growth for MGIC Investment. As part of wealth distribution to shareholders, MTG also engages in share buybacks, reflecting capital strength, financial results, and share price levels that are expected to be attractive to generate long-term value for shareholders.

Its solid growth projections as well as attractive valuations are other positives. Optimistic analyst sentiment and favorable ROIC should continue to benefit MGIC Investment over the long term. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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