CCJ Cuts McArthur Rive Output Outlook: Can Cigar Lake Bridge the Gap?

Cameco Corporation CCJ has revised its 2025 production outlook, projecting a 19% drop in its share of output from the McArthur River mine compared with its previous expectation. This shortfall is due to development delays in transitioning the mine to new mining areas as well as slower-than-anticipated ground freezing. 

Cameco holds a 69.805% stake in the McArthur River mine and 83.33% in the Key Lake mill. McArthur River is known as the largest high-grade uranium mine globally and Key Lake is the world’s largest uranium mill. CCJ also holds a 54.547% stake in Cigar Lake, the world’s highest-grade uranium mine. 

In the first half of 2025, Cameco’s share of combined production from McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake was 10.6 million pounds, down 18% year over year. This was mainly due to a 35% decline in the McArthur River mine’s output, reflecting its annual maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, Cameco’s share from the Cigar Lake mine was 5.5 million pounds, 8% higher year over year. 

Earlier, Cameco had provided an outlook of 18 million pounds of uranium production (100% basis) from each of McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake operations in 2025. This meant an expected 12.6 million pounds from McArthur and 9.8 million pounds from Cigar Lake. 

Production from the McArthur River/Key Lake operation is now projected at 14-15 million pounds of uranium concentrate (on a 100% basis), suggesting Cameco’s share at 9.8-10.5 million pounds.

The Cigar Lake mine’s production guidance for 2025 is maintained at 18 million pounds of uranium on a 100% basis, with CCJ’s share expected at 9.8 million pounds. Backed by Cigar Lake’s upbeat performance in the first half and expecting the momentum to continue, Cameco expects it will likely help set off up to 1 million pounds (100% basis) of the production shortfall at the McArthur River.    

Cameco’s Peer Performances

In the first half of 2025, Energy Fuels UUUU mined ore containing approximately 780,000 pounds of uranium from the Pinyon Plain, La Sal and Pandora mines. 

The Pinyon Plain mine has been a standout performer for Energy Fuels, with production ramping up significantly in recent months. Energy Fuels currently expects to mine ore from all of its mines containing approximately 875,000-1,435,000 pounds of contained uranium in 2025. Energy Fuels aims to process up to 1 million pounds of uranium this year.

Ur Energy URG is currently operating the Lost Creek project in south-central Wyoming, which has an annual capacity of 1.2 million pounds. Ur Energy produced 195,099 pounds of uranium in the first half of 2025. Ur Energy recently received final approval for the expansion of Lost Creek. The company is also progressing construction at Shirley Basin, which will transform it into a two-mine operation. Shirley Basin has a licensed annual mine capacity of 1 million pounds.

CCJ’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

So far this year, Cameco shares have gained 50.6% compared with the industry’s 20.8% growth. Meanwhile, the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector has moved up 18.3%, while the S&P 500 has climbed 9.9%.

CCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 13.28 compared with the industry’s 1.15. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 157.14%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 19%. 

The consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 has moved up over the past 60 days while the estimate for 2026 has moved down, as shown in the chart below.

The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research