You may not see hydrogen fueling stations popping up in your neighborhood, but this doesn't mean that enthusiasm for the power source is nonexistent. Research from Global Market Insights suggests that the global hydrogen industry was valued at $204.5 billion in 2024 and will grow to $603.3 billion in 2034.
Recognizing the potential for massive industry growth, hydrogen investors are paying close attention to Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG), a leader in fuel cells and hydrogen production -- especially since management characterizes 2025 as a "transformational year."
But what exactly does management mean by that and where does it see the company heading in the short term?
Before looking ahead, it's good to look at Plug's previous prognostications
While some companies will provide modest expectations about how their businesses will grow and then outdo their own projections, Plug has tended to be in the opposite camp -- overpromising and underdelivering. Take an investor presentation from June 2023, for example, when the company projected it would book 2023 annual revenue of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion and a gross profit of $50 million to $140 million. Instead, the company posted revenue and a gross loss of $891.3 million and $507.8 million, respectively.
Later in 2023, Plug further voiced optimism about the future, projecting 2027 revenue of about $6 billion and a gross profit margin of about 32% -- both of which seem extraordinarily unlikely considering the company reported revenue of $628.8 million and a gross loss of $624.9 million in 2024.
What management sees in the tea leaves
Although Plug hasn't reported an annual gross profit since 2019, management projected in a recent investor presentation that it expects to end 2025 with a positive gross profit margin.
This belief likely stems from confidence in Project Quantum Leap, an initiative to reduce spending through reductions in the workforce as well as limiting discretionary spending and capital expenditures, among other actions. Management estimates that the implementation of these strategies will result in annual cost savings of $150 million to $200 million.
Beyond 2025, management expects 2027 to be pivotal, projecting that Plug will end the year achieving positive operating income. And the progress will extend further down the income statement into 2028, when management expects to achieve positive net income.
What is conspicuously missing from the company's outlook for the next several years, however, is any indication about what the company will generate in terms of revenue -- something for which the company had traditionally provided robust forecasts.
Does Plug's positive prognostication make the stock a buy?
Just as investors must always remember that a company's strong performance in the past doesn't mean it will continue to achieve the same success in the future, it's important to acknowledge that the same axiom applies in another context: Just because Plug management has failed to steward the company toward achieving guidance in the past doesn't mean that the company will continue to miss forecasts in the future.
But it's something that warrants recognition. In other words, investors should probably give little weight to management's auspicious outlook for the next three years. Instead, those considering a position in Plug should closely watch the company's quarterly earnings reports to see if there is, in fact, progress toward achieving a gross profit at the end of 2025 and posting operating income at the end of 2027.
Should this be seen, discussions around a potential investment in Plug will be considerably more interesting. For now, it's best to keep Plug stock on the watch list.
Should you invest $1,000 in Plug Power right now?
Before you buy stock in Plug Power, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Plug Power wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $676,774!*
Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor service has more than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of April 1, 2025
Scott Levine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
