A month has gone by since the last earnings report for MercadoLibre (MELI). Shares have lost about 1.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MercadoLibre due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for MercadoLibre, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
MercadoLibre Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y
MercadoLibre reported second-quarter 2025 earnings of $10.31 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.15% and decreased 1.6% year over year. Revenues rose 33.8% on a year-over-year basis (53% on an FX-neutral basis) to $6.8 billion. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.10%.
Total revenues were driven by accelerating commerce and fintech revenues, which grew 29.3% and 40.3% year over year to $3.8 billion and $3 billion, respectively. In the commerce segment, strong momentum across Brazil (up 29% year over year) and Mexico (up 32% year over year) significantly contributed to the reported results. Trends in Argentina are exceptional. Items sold grew 46% and unique buyer growth exceeded 30% year over year in the second quarter.
Fintech Monthly Active Users rose 30% year over year to 67.6 million, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth at or above this rate. Engagement with Mercado Pago continues to rise, driven by a strengthening value proposition. Assets Under Management grew 108.6% year over year to $13.8 billion.
Revenues from MELI’s advertising services rose 38% year over year on a reported basis and 59% on a foreign exchange (FX)-neutral basis.
MELI’s Q2 in Detail
Brazil: Net revenues in the second quarter came in at $3.47 billion (51.1% of the total revenues), up 24.7% year over year.
Argentina: The market generated revenues of $1.53 billion (22.5% of the total revenues), which soared 76.9% year over year.
Mexico: Net revenues in the reported quarter were $1.51 billion (22.2% of the total revenues), which grew 25.4% year over year.
Other countries: The markets generated revenues of $284 million (4.2% of the total revenues), reflecting an increase of 27.4% on a year-over-year basis.
Key Metrics for MELI
GMV of $15.3 billion jumped 21% year over year and 37% on an FX-neutral basis year over year. The figure beat the consensus mark by 2.43%.
The number of successful items sold was 550 million, up 30.6% year over year.
TPV rose 39% year over year and 61% on an FX-neutral basis to $64.6 billion. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.93%. Acquiring TPV, which includes payments processed outside the marketplace, also saw solid growth, rising 31% to $44.4 billion.
Total payment transactions increased 34.8% year over year to $3.61 billion.
MercadoLibre’s Operating Details
For the second quarter, the gross margin contracted 105 basis points (bps) to 46% on a year-over-year basis.
Operating expenses were approximately $2.3 billion, which increased 38.4% year over year. As a percentage of revenues, the figure expanded 110 bps year over year to 33.4% in the reported quarter.
The operating margin contracted 210 bps from the year-ago period to 12.2%.
Balance Sheet of MELI
As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $3.01 billion, up from $2.98 billion as of March 31, 2025.
Short-term investments were $965 million as of June 30, 2025. Net debt was $3.83 billion at the end of the quarter.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -16.6% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, MercadoLibre has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise MercadoLibre has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
MercadoLibre belongs to the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry. Another stock from the same industry, Carvana (CVNA), has gained 4.5% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2025.
Carvana reported revenues of $4.84 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +41.9%. EPS of $1.28 for the same period compares with $0.14 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Carvana is expected to post earnings of $1.27 per share, indicating a change of +98.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2.8% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Carvana. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI): Free Stock Analysis Report Carvana Co. (CVNA): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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