MOS Stock Rallies 35% in 6 Months: Should You Buy the Stock Now?

The Mosaic Company’s MOS shares have popped 35.5% in the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s gain of 16% and the S&P 500’s rise of 10.2%. Mosaic is benefiting from favorable demand for phosphate and potash, high-return investments, and actions to improve its cost structure, further supported by an uptick in fertilizer prices.

MOS’s peers, Nutrien Ltd. NTR and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, have gained 13.9% and 11.1%, respectively, over the same period.

MOS’s 6-month Price Performance

Technical indicators show that MOS has been trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since April 16, 2025. The stock is currently trading below its 50-day SMA. Following a golden crossover on May 6, 2025, the 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.

Mosaic Trades Below 50-Day SMA

Is the time right to buy MOS’ shares for potential upside? Let’s take a look at the stock’s fundamentals.

Higher Fertilizer Demand to Underpin Growth in MOS

MOS is benefiting from the strong demand for phosphate and potash, aided by favorable agricultural conditions. Attractive farm economics continue to drive demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs. The phosphate market is benefiting from higher global demand and low producer and channel inventories. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in phosphate and potash prices this year. 

Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high globally. Improved farmer affordability is also likely to continue to drive demand for fertilizers. Improved crop prices have also incentivized fertilizer application by growers. In North America, strong yields and growers’ need to replenish soil nutrients have ushered in a favorable environment. Demand in Brazil is also expected to be driven by healthy grower economics and low levels of inventories. Low inventory levels and pent-up purchases, backed by increased government support, are also expected to drive demand in India. MOS expects fertilizer markets to remain favorable through 2025, supported by strong demand and tight supply.

Cost Reduction and High-Return Investments to Aid MOS  

Mosaic is also taking action to reduce costs amid a still challenging operating environment. Its actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to boost profitability. Mosaic remains on track with its cost-reduction plan, which is now expected to drive $250 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, having already achieved $150 million in cost reduction targets. The additional cost reductions are expected to be realized through optimization of the supply chain, automation of administrative functions, absorption of fixed costs and operational cost cuts. 

MOS also remains committed to carrying out investments with high returns and moderate capital expenditures. It has completed the 800,000-ton MicroEssentials capacity conversion, with volumes expected to rise 25% in 2025. The Esterhazy Hydrofloat project, which added 400,000 tons in milling capacity, is complete and produced the first potash tons in July 2025, with a ramp-up expected by the end of the year. 

Hydrofloat will allow Mosaic to produce low-cost potash tons. The construction of a new blending and distribution center in Palmeirante, Brazil was also completed in July 2025, supporting the company’s long-term growth objectives in Brazilian agriculture markets. The facility is expected to enable Mosaic Fertilizantes to increase overall sales by 1 million tons.

Mosaic’s Solid Financial Health Bodes Well

MOS generates substantial cash flows, which enable it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. The company generated an operating cash flow $610 million and a free cash flow of $305 million in the second quarter of 2025. It expects to generate stronger cash flow in the second half of 2025, allowing debt reductions and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.   
 
Further, Mosaic offers a healthy dividend yield of roughly 2.7% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 49% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). MOS has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 41.6%. Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.

Positive Analyst Sentiment for MOS Stock

Earnings estimates for MOS have been rising over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upward over the same time frame.

A Look At Mosaic Stock’s Valuation

MOS is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 11.2X, a 16% discount compared to the industry’s average of 13.34X. It is trading at a discount to Nutrien and CF Industries. Mosaic, Nutrien and CF Industries currently have a Value Score of A, each.

MOS’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NTR & CF

How Should Investors Play the MOS Stock?

Mosaic presents a compelling investment case benefiting from strong global demand for phosphate and potash, thanks to the underlying strength of the agricultural market and attractive farm economics. MOS’ cost-reduction initiatives, capacity expansions and strategic investments such as Hydrofloat and Brazilian distribution enhancements strengthen profitability and growth. Robust cash flows also fund debt reduction, dividends and buybacks. Rising earnings estimates and attractive valuation are the other positives.

With compelling fundamentals, MOS looks poised to deliver attractive returns to investors, making this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock a prudent choice to bet on for those looking to capitalize on the favorable fertilizer market conditions. 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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