The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. on Value investing subreddit by ProudlyRegarded. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HIG. The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s share was trading at $132.31 as of August 29^th. HIG’s trailing and forward P/E were 12.02 and 11.44 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., a holding company for subsidiaries offering property & casualty, business, group benefits, and investment products primarily in the U.S., continues to show robust operating momentum. Recent results highlighted a combined ratio of ~87% across all business lines, improving 5% year-over-year, reflecting stronger underwriting discipline. While mature business insurance contracted ~3% YOY, newer personal lines including auto and home saw sharper declines of 11–20%.

Despite this, total written premiums grew ~8% YOY, supported by strong international expansion (+10%) and growth among mid-size and small businesses. Underwriting gains rose 39% YOY, EPS expanded 41% YOY, and the company’s smaller mutual fund/ETF business advanced 7%. Balance sheet trends remain solid, with insurance and annuity liabilities rising less than 5% YOY—well below premium growth—while the debt-to-equity ratio fell to 25, down about 10% YOY.

The company’s financial profile is equally attractive, with trailing twelve-month ROE near 20% and a P/E multiple below 12, pointing to undervaluation relative to earnings power. Free cash flow growth is strong, enabling significant capital returns: $400M in share repurchases were executed last quarter, with a similar pace expected this quarter, underpinned by a $2.35B authorization through Q4 2026. Dividends have compounded at ~10% annually over the past five years, supported by a bond-heavy investment portfolio with over 70% in fixed maturities, delivering stable 4.5% yields and steady 5% annual growth.

Fair value analysis, using blended enterprise value and pricing multiples, suggests ~$157.48/share, implying ~20% upside from current levels. With strong earnings momentum, disciplined underwriting, and robust shareholder returns, Hartford presents a compelling risk/reward profile.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on The Progressive Corporation (PGR) by Charly AI in April 2025, highlighting improving profitability, usage-based insurance innovation, strong combined ratio, and undervaluation. The stock has depreciated approximately 5.11% since coverage, as broader market pressures offset gains. The thesis still stands due to strong fundamentals. ProudlyRegarded similarly focuses on insurance but emphasizes Hartford’s diversified lines, underwriting, and shareholder returns.

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 44 hedge fund portfolios held HIG at the end of the first quarter which was 41 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of HIG as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.