Can MongoDB's Atlas Momentum Drive Upside in Subscription Revenues?

MongoDB’s MDB cloud native Atlas platform has established itself as the company’s strategic growth engine. Positioned as a unified data foundation, it brings together security, scalability and performance with integrated capabilities across operational data, search, analytics and AI-powered retrieval. This breadth is expected to reduce infrastructure complexity and reinforce Atlas as a mission-critical choice for enterprises modernizing their applications.

This enterprise orientation has been translating into momentum. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Atlas revenues increased 29% year over year and represented 74% of MDB’s total revenues. The platform was serving more than 58,300 customers at the quarter’s end, up from 49,200 a year earlier, reflecting both new adoption and the expansion of existing deployments. Consumption patterns have been delivering higher absolute revenues, pointing to stronger monetization of enterprise workloads.

Adoption is increasingly concentrated in larger, more durable deployments. MDB reported 2,564 customers generating at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenues, a 17% increase from the prior year. With a net annual recurring revenue expansion rate of nearly 119%, MDB is viewed as demonstrating durable retention alongside consistent workload expansion. Atlas’ integrated capabilities are expected to create natural opportunities for customers to consolidate adjacent use cases, further enhancing account value over time.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 subscription revenues is pegged at $571.7 million, with the consensus mark for Atlas revenues pegged at $455.8 million, up 25.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. These expectations suggest that Atlas will remain the decisive driver of MongoDB’s subscription growth, supporting meaningful upside in the near term.

MDB’s Atlas Confronts Pressure From Rivals

MongoDB faces competition from peers pursuing similar subscription growth through cloud platforms. Snowflake SNOW positions its Data Cloud as a direct rival to MongoDB Atlas, emphasizing seamless workload scaling and AI-driven analytics across enterprises. Snowflake’s reliance on a consumption-based model mirrors Atlas’ trajectory, with recurring revenues tied to sustained usage. Oracle ORCL, through its Oracle Autonomous Database, competes with Atlas by targeting mission-critical deployments that require scalability, security and automated management. Both Snowflake and Oracle remain well-entrenched alternatives to Atlas in the cloud database market.

MDB’s Share Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

MDB shares have appreciated 39.4% in the year-to-date (YTD) period, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Software industry’s growth of 20.4% and the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s return of 15.4%.

MDB’s YTD Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, MongoDB stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 10.23X compared with the industry’s 5.74X. MDB has a Value Score of F.

MDB Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at 78 cents per share, which is up by 9 cents over the past 30 days, indicating a 32.76% year-over-year decline.

MongoDB, Inc. Price and Consensus

MongoDB, Inc. price-consensus-chart | MongoDB, Inc. Quote

MongoDB currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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