4 Metrics Forecasting Bitcoin's Rise Over the Next 2 Years

Key Points

• Bitcoin flourishes when money is cheap and plentiful.

• There are at least four macro metrics that point to that happening soon.

• The next couple of years look good, but this party won't last forever.

• 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›

When money becomes easier to access, cheaper to borrow, and more plentiful, risk assets like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) generally go on a bull run. When those conditions reverse, the same assets give back some of their gains.

Right now, however, four macro metrics are blinking green. This bodes well for the coin's next couple of years. Here's what you need to know.

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The four metrics that portend lots of demand ahead

Here are the four macro metrics that matter most to Bitcoin's medium-term future right now:

• Money-supply growth
• A softer U.S. dollar
• Lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields
• Rising real disposable personal income

Although these concepts may seem complex without a background in economics or finance, they become more digestible when considering their impact on Bitcoin. Here's a quick rundown of each.

First, when cash is easier to come by, borrowing is cheaper, and households have more to spend, the environment favors risk assets like Bitcoin.

On that note, the U.S. M2 money supply climbed to more than $22.1 trillion in July, up from $21.6 trillion in March, and it's still climbing. More money circulating generally means that many safer assets tend to get unapproachably expensive, which incentivizes investment in riskier assets. Bitcoin's multiquarter direction tends to move with global liquidity roughly 83% of the time, per research conducted by Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. As long as the money supply keeps growing, liquidity will follow, and so may Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the dollar is losing some of its strength. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits near 98, well off its 2022 high of 114.7, somewhat easing global conditions for dollar-denominated borrowing. Investors looking to preserve their purchasing power are likely to rotate their capital into liquid stores of value, like Bitcoin or gold funds.

The third metric is long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which have slipped with the 10-year yield at around 4.2%. That lowers the hurdle rate for capital to go toward riskier assets like Bitcoin, as the return for staying in safer assets, like Treasuries, is less attractive than before.

The supply of investable dollars held by the public is the final metric. On the consumer side, real disposable personal income rose 0.4% in July, adding to steady 2025 gains. When people have more income, they have more capacity to invest and are more willing to take on risk when investing. Of course, many investors are feeling financially squeezed right now, so it's possible that the data isn't capturing the full story of how consumers are doing at the moment.

Taken together, these trends sketch a picture of improving liquidity and an environment that will tend to favor a higher Bitcoin price. That especially matters because Bitcoin's scarcity-based investment thesis is most powerful when there's fresh money flowing into markets -- like now.

Turning these signals into an investing plan

In practice, you don't need all four of these metrics to be flashing green before dabbling in Bitcoin. They also aren't the only four macro metrics that matter for this asset. Still, if three or more of them lean toward easy money, history suggests the odds of Bitcoin trending higher over the next 12 to 24 months improve expeditiously.

Therefore, assuming current conditions hold and likely will for at least a while longer, Bitcoin has good odds of grinding higher over the next couple of years. The simplest approach is to use dollar-cost averaging (DCAing) to mitigate the risk of timing the market incorrectly, and ensure that your total position size is kept in line with your comfort level for volatility.

One important thing to recognize is that this beneficial macro regime won't last forever. Just as in 2022, when the Federal Reserve started to hike interest rates to try to control inflation after a long period of cutting them, the same process will almost certainly occur once again at some point in the future.

Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin's price has tended to fall substantially when the macro environment disfavors it. If sticky inflation pushes yields higher or a recession ends up cutting into people's incomes, two or three of the metrics could flip to bearish levels. Potentially, this could happen all at once. If that occurs and your income is threatened, it will be better to ease back on Bitcoin bets than overextend yourself with a risky investment. It could take years before this gamble pays off.

For now, watch the money, not the day-to-day noise in price or sentiment. When liquidity expands and financial conditions ease, Bitcoin's built-in scarcity tends to shine brightest. Over the next two years, the current setup seems to be far more helpful than harmful.

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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.