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Strategy MSTR shares are currently overvalued, as suggested by the Value Score of F.
In terms of price/book, Strategy is trading at 1.93X compared with MARA Holdings’ MARA 1.23X and Riot Platforms’ RIOT 1.84X, suggesting a premium valuation.
The MSTR stock is currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend.
Strategy shares have appreciated 12.7% year to date (YTD, underperforming the Zacks Financial- Miscellaneous Services industry’s and the Zacks Finance sector’s return of 3.9% and 12.1%, respectively.
Strategy is the world’s largest bitcoin treasury company, holding 638,460 bitcoins as of Sept. 7. MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark CLSK are other well-known companies that hold bitcoins in their respective balance sheets. As of June 30, MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark had 49,951, 19,273 and 10,075 bitcoins, respectively.
Strategy shares have underperformed Riot Platform but outperformed MARA Holdings and CleanSpark. While MARA Holdings has dropped 5.4%, Riot Platform and CleanSark shares have jumped 60.6% and 8.9%, respectively, over the same time frame.
Strategy benefits from the Trump administration’s announcement of the establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve. Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, has been soaring due to increasing acceptance as a non-sovereign asset, as well as higher institutional and corporate adoption. President Trump recently issued an executive order directing the Labor Department to explore allowing 401(k) retirement plans to hold cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets, which is expected to drive retail adoption of bitcoin.
Strategy now expects to achieve a bitcoin yield of 30% and $20 billion in gains, assuming the bitcoin price hits $150,000 at the end of the year. Bitcoin yield has hit 25% year to date and was 19.7% at the end of the second quarter of 2025. In dollar terms, bitcoin gain was $9.5 billion at the end of the second quarter and $13.2 billion year to date.
For 2025, Strategy expects operating income of $34 billion, net income of $24 billion and earnings of $80 per share, based on a bitcoin price outlook of $150,000 at the end of the year. The company’s estimated 2025 net income of $24 billion is better than Riot Platforms’ and Mara Holdings’ net loss of $0.5 billion and $0.8 billion, respectively.
The company’s disciplined approach to capital raising through preferred equity offerings — Strike (STRK), Strife (STRF), STRD (Stride) and STRC (Stretch) — is a key catalyst. STRK offers an 8% dividend coupon plus MSTR exposure through conversion rights, and has an effective yield of 7.5% as of July 29. STRF offers a 10% cash dividend coupon with enhanced payment protection features and has had an effective yield of 8.7% as of July 29. Stride offers a 10% cash dividend coupon with strong collateral coverage and has an effective yield of 11.9%. Stretch offers a variable monthly cash dividend with an effective yield of 9.5% as of July 30.
Strategy has issued $10.7 billion in equities and $7.6 billion in fixed income securities year to date. Among fixed income securities, the company raised $2 billion, $0.94 billion, $2.52 billion, $1.13 billion and $1.02 billion through convertible notes, STRF, STRC, STRK and STRD, respectively.
For third-quarter 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR’s loss has been unchanged at 11 cents per share over the past 30 days. The company reported a loss of $1.56 in the year-ago quarter.
Strategy Inc price-consensus-chart | Strategy Inc Quote
For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR’s loss has been unchanged at $15.73 per share over the past 30 days. The company reported a loss of $6.72 per share in 2024.
Despite growing bitcoin holdings, Strategy suffers from a stretched valuation, challenging macroeconomic conditions and uncertainty about tariffs that increase volatility in bitcoin trading. Increasing losses make the stock risky for investors.
Strategy currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), which implies that investors should avoid the stock right now.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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