Meta's $600B U.S. Investment: Bearish or Bullish for Shares?

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is in the news again—but this time it's not for a new product. Instead, founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that the company plans to invest at least $600 billion in the United States through 2028.

The bold statement followed a meeting with President Trump, adding political weight and media buzz.

But what exactly does this number represent? And more importantly, is it even feasible? Let's examine Meta’s plan in depth, detailing how the statements amount to more than they seem.

Is Meta’s CapEx Set to Explode?

Zuckerberg’s comments should elicit some concern right off the bat. When hyperscaler firms like Meta use the words “$600 billion investment," many investors understandably translate this to $600 billion of artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure (CapEx).

That would generally include spending on advanced chip designers like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO)—an especially reasonable assumption in the case of Zuckerberg’s statement.

Just before revealing the number, Zuckerberg mentioned “making huge investments in the country in order to build out data centers and infrastructure." However, that level of AI CapEx over three years would be hard to stomach for markets.

As a reference point, Meta plans to spend between $66 billion and $72 billion on CapEx in 2025. Clearly, $600 billion in spending over the next three years would imply a skyrocketing level of CapEx compared to current levels.

That would put significant pressure on Meta key metrics, such as free cash flow. Meta’s earnings growth would have to accelerate significantly to justify this increased spending. Meanwhile, most estimates project a deceleration in Meta’s earnings growth. 

Thus, if these estimates are correct, Meta would not be able to justify this level of spending, eventually hurting sentiment around the stock.

Susan Li Adds Context, But Numbers Still Don’t Add Up

On Sept.9, Meta CFO Susan Li clarified Zuckerberg’s statement at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025. According to Li, the $600 billion figure represents total U.S. spending, not just CapEx, and includes data center construction, employee salaries, operational expenses, and even spending already incurred in 2025.

She says the number includes the company’s total operating U.S. expenses over that period, not just CapEx. She also notes that the number consists of what the company has already spent and plans to spend in 2025.

To break this down: Meta expects its total operating expenses to be around $116 billion at the midpoint in 2025. However, with Meta's worldwide presence, let’s assume 30% of this spending goes to other countries. That would mean Meta’s U.S. spending would be slightly above $80 billion.

Li’s statements imply that Meta would invest nearly $520 billion in the U.S. from 2026 to 2028.

But with analysts projecting about $780 billion in global revenue over those three years, that’s significantly below Meta’s operating margin of 43% last quarter, and doesn’t even include expense projections outside the United States.

The math simply doesn’t support such a massive U.S.-only investment.

$600 Billion iIs Unrealistic, but Further Upside Is Not 

It seems like Zuckerberg’s $600 billion comment is more marketing than material.

To achieve this, Meta would need to increase its revenue growth to maintain its operating margin massively. This would surely be highly bullish for shares. 

However, more realistically, investors should chalk the statement up to little more than an attention-grabbing headline. One statement from Zuckerberg doesn’t amount to actual guidance from Meta, and shouldn’t alter the outlook on shares.

Given this, the outlook for the stock remains bullish, with the company posting impressive performance in its AI-enabled advertising business.

The MarketBeat consensus price target on Meta is approximately $882, implying nearly 9% upside. Additionally, multiple Wall Street analysts see shares hitting $900, a figure that implies approximately 20% upside for the tech giant.

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The article "Meta's $600B U.S. Investment: Bearish or Bullish for Shares? " first appeared on MarketBeat.