BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on BILL Holdings, Inc. on Compounding Your Wealth’s Substack by Sergey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BILL. BILL Holdings, Inc.'s share was trading at $46.73 as of September 2^nd. BILL’s forward P/E was 21.64 according to Yahoo Finance.

Bill.com delivered strong fiscal 2025 results, closing the year with $1.5 billion in revenue, up 16% in core operations despite muted SMB spending. Q4 revenue of $383 million grew 11.5% year over year, with EPS of $0.53 beating estimates by 29%. Subscription and transaction fees drove performance, accounting for 90% of revenue and rising 15% to $346 million. Transaction volume and activity remained robust, with total payment volume reaching $86 billion and 32.9 million transactions, up double digits both annually and sequentially.

Divvy adoption surged, with card volume nearly 600% higher, fueling $151 million in spend and expense revenue. Meanwhile, the company added 4,700 net new AP/AR customers, pushing totals to nearly 170,000, and expanded its network to over 8 million members. Bill’s digital ecosystem is becoming increasingly sticky, with 54% of payments now fully completed within its network.

Profitability was mixed, with non-GAAP operating income of $240 million for the year, 23% above initial expectations, though margins were pressured by higher sales and marketing costs and a weaker net margin. Still, efficiency gains in fraud prevention and proactive credit line expansion supported growth. Product innovation was a highlight, with Supplier Payments Plus, bulk payments, and Embed 2.0 expanding monetization opportunities, while the upcoming AgenTeq AI agents promise a shift from workflow support to autonomous financial operations.

Guidance for FY2026 was cautious at $1.59–$1.63 billion in revenue (+9–11% YoY), below consensus, reflecting tariff-driven pressure on SMB discretionary budgets. Even so, with over 1% of U.S. GDP flowing through its platform, Bill.com remains positioned as a leader in intelligent financial operations, supported by accelerating mid-market adoption, new partnerships, and ongoing share repurchases.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) by @bigbullcap in May 2025, which highlighted the strength of its multi-product growth engine and diversified ARR contributors. The company’s stock price has appreciated by 17.67% since our coverage. This is because product adoption and execution have exceeded expectations. The thesis still stands as Datadog expands its observability and security portfolios. Sergey shares a similar view on BILL but emphasizes its sticky digital ecosystem and emerging AI monetization.

BILL Holdings, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 53 hedge fund portfolios held BILL at the end of the first quarter which was 64 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of BILL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.