AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. on Investing With Purpose’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ASTS. AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s share was trading at $36.91 as of September 9th.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is pursuing the ambitious goal of enabling ordinary smartphones to connect directly to satellites, positioning itself as a disruptive player in the direct-to-device (D2D) space. The company has partnered with major carriers like AT&T, Vodafone, Rakuten, and Google, launched five production satellites, and demonstrated live video calls, aiming to deliver carrier-grade 4G/5G broadband from orbit.

Liquidity is strong, with $923.6M in cash against $505.6M of debt as of June 2025, giving it a runway of roughly 16 months at its current burn rate. However, ASTS remains essentially pre-revenue, reporting just $4.9M in trailing sales versus a $559M operating loss, reflecting heavy capex on constellation buildout. Despite a healthy balance sheet, the model is binary: success opens a multi-billion-dollar market, while delays risk dilution or worse.

Competition has intensified. SpaceX and T-Mobile have already launched text services, bolstered by EchoStar’s $17B spectrum deal, while Apple and Globalstar maintain a stronghold with SOS and messaging integration. Iridium remains profitable in niche satcom, and other startups are targeting regional opportunities. ASTS’s differentiation lies in its carrier-first model, standards-based compliance, and broadband ambitions, but execution speed is critical as Starlink leverages scale and Apple benefits from ecosystem lock-in.

Valuation reflects optionality rather than fundamentals. With a ~$9–10B market cap against negligible revenue, the stock trades as a venture bet on timely execution. If ASTS can meet its launch cadence of 1–2 satellites per month and demonstrate meaningful revenue by 2026, upside could be substantial. But with shares trading at option-like multiples, the risk/reward is finely balanced, leaving little margin for delays.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong funding position, expanding telecom and government contracts, and successful satellite-to-smartphone connectivity. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 40.66% since our coverage. This is because the thesis partially played out. The thesis still stands as ASTS approaches commercial deployment in late 2025. Steve Wagner shares an identical view.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 22 hedge fund portfolios held ASTS at the end of the first quarter which was 22 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of ASTS as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.