Taseko Mines Limited (TGB): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Taseko Mines Limited on Value Degen’s Substack by Unemployed Value Degen. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TGB. Taseko Mines Limited's share was trading at $3.6400 as of September 15th. TGB’s trailing and forward P/E were 17.91 and 11.72, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Taseko Mines (TGB) is a Canadian-based, US-listed junior copper miner with one producing asset, one near-term project, and three large-scale greenfield developments. Its producing Gibraltar mine in British Columbia, acquired for $1 in 1999 and modernized with $800 million, has a 32-year mine life and generated 106 million pounds of copper in 2024 at $2.30 per pound cash costs, with 2025 production projected at 120 million pounds. The near-complete Florence in-situ copper project in Arizona, acquired for roughly CAD 75 million in stock, represents the company’s most transformative asset.

With only $235 million in buildout costs, Florence benefits from uniquely favorable geology and is expected to produce 85 million pounds annually at a projected cash cost of $1.11 per pound, positioning it in the first quartile of the global cost curve. Financing was structured through a 2.05% gross royalty to Taurus, a Mitsui copper stream and offtake, and Gibraltar’s cash flow. Florence begins ramping in Q4 2025 and is expected to contribute roughly $325 million in EBITDA, on top of Gibraltar’s $250 million.

Longer-term optionality rests with three greenfield projects in British Columbia: New Prosperity (copper-gold, 33-year mine life), Yellowhead (copper, $2 billion upfront cost, 25-year mine life), and Aley (niobium, 24-year mine life), with Yellowhead prioritized for development due to superior economics. Despite this pipeline, the market is largely ignoring Florence’s imminent contribution. By 2027, TGB’s 88,000 tons of projected copper production is valued at just $12,841 per ton, well below peers such as Hudbay or Ero Copper, and the stock trades at only 3.07x 2027 EBITDA at $4.50 copper. Relative rerating suggests 50%+ upside, with even greater potential if copper rises to $5.50.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) by Unemployed Value Degen in December 2024, which highlighted its strong copper and gold asset base, balance sheet discipline, and diversification from gold production. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 53.31% since our coverage as operational efficiency and integration supported the thesis. The thesis still stands with copper demand fundamentals intact. Unemployed Value Degen shares a similar view on Taseko Mines Limited (TGB) but emphasizes growth from the Florence in-situ project.

Taseko Mines Limited is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 13 hedge fund portfolios held TGB at the end of the second quarter which was 10 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of TGB as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.