Could MP Materials Go Parabolic by 2028?

Key Points

• MP Materials owns and operates Mountain Pass mine, the only rare-earth metal mine in the U.S.

• The company is government-backed and has a strategic partnership with Apple.

• It isn't profitable, however, and it likely needs more manufacturing power to go parabolic in three years.

• 10 stocks we like better than MP Materials ›

Although "neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr)" may not be a term you use everyday, you most likely depend on its uses everyday.

That's because NdPr is critical for making the super-strong magnets in electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, smartphones, robotics, defense systems, and more.

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For years the U.S. has depended on foreign sources for rare metals like NdPr. But mining company MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is aiming to change that.

As the owner and operator of the only rare-earth metal mine and processing site in the U.S., the Mountain Pass mine in California, MP Materials is setting itself up to be the country's go-to for certain rare earth metals.

The stock has a lot of momentum -- up almost 350% on the year -- but can it go parabolic in three years?

Image source: Getty Images.

Strategic partnerships, but a cash-bleed problem

MP Materials makes money by selling rare-earth concentrates and oxides, like NdPr oxide, and by producing permanent magnets for a myriad of markets, including electric vehicles.

In July 2025, MP got two huge votes of confidence. One was a multibillion-dollar package from the Department of Defense (DoD), which invested $400 million in MP's stock and agreed to buy NdPr oxide at a price floor of $110 per kilogram over the next decade.

The second was a $500 million partnership with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). A first-of-its-kind deal, MP will supply Apple with magnets for "hundreds of millions" of devices starting in 2027.

Both of these could set MP up for a strong three years to come. But let's not overlook the risks. MP isn't profitable, and it doesn't have the manufacturing capacity to meet high demand for super-strong magnets.

MP Free Cash Flow (Quarterly) data by YCharts

At its current price, MP trades at almost 83 times forward earnings, a rich valuation that looks more like tech than mining.

With a multiple like that, MP will need something big -- like the completion of its 10X facility -- to go parabolic by 2028. It's possible, but only invest if you can stomach losses, as volatility should be expected.

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Steven Porrello has positions in MP Materials. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple. The Motley Fool recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.