Is BigBear.ai the Next Palantir?

Many investors look at Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) and wish they had had the insight to start buying before the rest of the market caught on to this stock, driving its price higher by over 1,800% during the past five years.

Chasing this company's growth and expansion is not necessarily a bad idea, although there is an inherent risk that it may experience more frequent pullbacks.

Finding a company with a similar situation to that of Palantir in its early days could be a better strategy, one with powerful artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, strong defense sector ties, and a long runway for growth.

And that’s where BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) comes in.

BigBear operates in the same high-stakes intersection of technology and national defense that was instrumental in Palantir's success.

But unlike Palantir, which now has a market cap of over $440 billion, BigBear is still small at $2.4 billion.

This allows BigBear to significantly limit its downside potential while keeping a massive ceiling gap available for markets to price in future growth potential.

BigBear + Palantir: Working Together, Not Against Each Other

AI's new role within the U.S. defense sector isn’t a zero-sum game. Both the Department of Defense (DoD) and civilian sectors are expanding their AI use, so there is room for companies like BigBear to enter the ecosystem and collaborate rather than compete with Palantir.

BigBear isn’t aiming to unseat Palantir. It wants to grow alongside Palantir.

Palantir offers a range of products and software, including its foundry and machine learning segments. Because BigBear operates a similar intelligence model, utilizing a chain of data collection and input, followed by analysis and recommended actions, it is directly aligned with Palantir, albeit on a smaller scale.

Palantir’s offerings are expanding beyond the defense contracting sector to include civilian applications like logistics, healthcare, and infrastructure—a big reason why the market has been so bullish on the company’s future and untapped market potential.

BigBear mirrors this dual-market strategy. Through its ProModel product line, BigBear has already proven to be a valuable player in defense and commercial applications. Amplifying this theme is the fact that BigBear now has six applications under “awardable” status for the DoD to consider funding in the future.

BigBear’s Upside: Not Just Smoke and Mirrors

It is easy to call BigBear the next Palantir, hoping that the stock will surge in price due to popularity; however, this one is not just a popular story in the making—it is a truly fundamental setup founded in sound business principles.

For starters, the company’s Q2 earnings results show investors where to keep looking.

BigBear’s latest quarterly report shows order backlogs grew to $380 million over the quarter. While this is not necessarily assumed revenue, it is a perfect sign indicating increased demand for BigBear’s products and services, a pipeline that will eventually convert to revenue as the government and other commercial players begin to adopt this technology.

In fact, CEO Kevin McAleenan pointed out that the United States is proposing $170 billion in funding for the Department of Homeland Security and $150 billion for the DoD. He stated that these funding opportunities are “directly in our lane” when it comes to mission-ready artificial intelligence services.

Knowing that this optimism is rooted in actual events, institutional investors are building stakes. Geode Capital Management now owns $34.5 million worth of BBAI and JPMorgan Chase holds a $16.3 million position. 

A Ground-Floor Opportunity with Long-Term Potential

Right now, BigBear sits at a unique crossroads: it has established credibility in AI-driven intelligence with early wins in defense and logistics and has a low enough market cap with room for serious growth.

If Palantir's past is any guide, BigBear could be positioned for a multi-year run, especially as government and enterprise demand for AI continues to accelerate.

As tempting as it is to label BigBear as the “next Palantir,” it would be more accurate to just call BigBear what it is: a fundamentally solid business operating in a rapidly expanding sector that is supported by real contracts, real products, and real momentum.

Either way, investors looking to get in ahead of the next wave of attention should give BigBear.ai a closer look.

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