The U.S. Energy Department’s latest storage report showed an injection well below both analyst estimates and the five-year average. The lighter build, combined with firm LNG demand and steady industrial use, helped support prices even as mild temperatures tempered heating needs. Natural gas futures posted a nearly 4% weekly gain, marking a second straight advance. While short-term sentiment remains weather-sensitive, analysts see tightening supply balances and stronger export flows setting a constructive tone heading into the winter months.
At this time, we advise investors to focus on stocks such as Coterra Energy (CTRA), Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Excelerate Energy (EE).
EIA Reports a Build Smaller Than Market Expectations
Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 53 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Sept. 26, lower than analysts’ guidance of a 70 Bcf addition. The increase compared with the five-year (2020-2024) average net addition of 85 Bcf and last year’s growth of 54 Bcf for the reported week.
The latest build put total natural gas stocks at 3,561 Bcf, 21 Bcf (0.6%) above the 2024 level and 171 Bcf (5%) higher than the five-year average.
Natural Gas Momentum Holds Despite Weather Headwinds
Natural gas futures ended the week higher, notching a second consecutive weekly gain even as mild weather curbed demand. November futures closed at $3.324 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday, up 3.7% for the week. Prices saw sharp swings — surging midweek on short-covering and cooler forecasts, before slipping later as warmer conditions returned. A smaller-than-expected storage build briefly lifted sentiment but failed to spark sustained buying. Still, the market’s ability to advance despite soft fundamentals reflects underlying strength, supported by steady LNG demand, tightening balances, and investor positioning ahead of the peak winter season.
Final Thoughts
Despite periods of volatility, the tone across the natural gas market remains constructive. Futures climbed steadily through late September into early October, supported by record LNG exports, firm industrial demand, and a below-average storage build. While tepid temperatures temporarily eased heating demand, the market’s ability to hold above the psychologically important level of $3 reflects steady undercurrents of strength. With production slipping modestly and inventories only slightly above seasonal norms, supply appears balanced heading into the colder months.
The outlook looks increasingly optimistic. Analysts expect winter demand to rise as cooler temperatures emerge. Continued LNG expansion should further lift export volumes. The EIA projects prices to trend higher into early 2026, supported by firmer global demand and slower production growth. For investors, this evolving setup presents an encouraging mix — resilient fundamentals, manageable inventories, and the potential for renewed upside as winter approaches.
For the time being, a measured yet steady approach appears reasonable. Attention may be better directed toward companies with solid fundamentals and the resilience to handle near-term market fluctuations.
3 Stocks to Focus on
Coterra Energy: It is an independent upstream operator primarily engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas. Headquartered in Houston, TX, the firm owns some 186,000 net acres in the gas-producing Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. The company’s share of natural gas in its overall production is around 65%.
Coterra’s expected earnings per share growth rate for three to five years is currently 30.1%, which compares favorably with the industry's growth rate of 19.4%. Valued at around $17.8 billion, Coterra Energy — carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 6.3%, on average.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Cheniere Energy: Cheniere Energy holds a clear competitive edge as the first company to receive regulatory approval to export LNG from its 2.6 billion cubic feet per day Sabine Pass terminal. Strong operations and long-term contracts position the company for substantial growth in both revenue and earnings.
The Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion is advancing steadily, with construction about two-thirds complete and Train 1 expected to see its first gas input by the end of the year. Backed by firm gas supply agreements for its Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi facilities, the Zacks Rank #3 company enjoys strong cash flow visibility and solid long-term growth prospects. Notably, over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cheniere Energy’s 2025 earnings has moved up 18.9%.
Excelerate Energy: Headquartered in The Woodlands, TX, the company focuses on LNG infrastructure and services, particularly Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) and associated terminals. Operating across both emerging and developed markets, Excelerate Energy accounts for about 20% of the global FSRU fleet and 5% of total regasification capacity. Established in 2003, the company is now expanding into LNG-to-power and gas distribution, offering reliable and flexible energy solutions worldwide.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excelerate Energy’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 5.5% year-over-year growth. This #3 Ranked firm has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 16.6%, on average.
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Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE): Free Stock Analysis Report Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG): Free Stock Analysis Report Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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