Is a Beat in the Cards for Delta Air Lines in Q3 Earnings?

Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 9, before the market opens.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.60 per share, indicating a 6.7% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $15.9 billion, indicating a 1.6% increase from the third-quarter 2024 actuals.

DAL has an impressive earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missing once. The average beat is 4.8%.

Delta Air Lines, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Delta Air Lines, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Delta Air Lines, Inc. Quote

Factors Likely to Have Influenced DAL’s Q3 Performance

We expect DAL's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to be boosted by an uptick in total revenues, driven by high passenger revenues as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes. Our estimate for passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 3.4% increase from third-quarter 2024 actuals. Meanwhile, our model estimates for other revenues are pegged at $2.38 million,indicating 0.2% growth from the prior-year figures.

Moreover, the company expects a strong cost performance in the September-end quarter of 2025, projecting its best non-fuel unit cost results of the year, with expenses anticipated to remain flat or decline compared to 2024.

On the contrary, we expect geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation to weigh on DAL’s operations and weaken travel demand, especially in the international and business segments. These headwinds may have resulted in volatility in passenger traffic and, in turn, limited the airline’s ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth.

What Our Model Says About DAL

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Delta Air Lines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Delta Air Lines has an Earnings ESP of +1.42% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Highlights of DAL’s Q2 Earnings

Delta Air Lines reported second-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding $1.17 per share from non-recurring items) of $2.10 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.04. Earnings decreased 11% on a year-over-year basis due to high labor costs.

Revenues in the June-end quarter were $16.65 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.2 billion and decreasing marginally on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) increased 1% year over year to $15.5 billion. 

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few more stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-moving news.

Union Pacific UNP has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UNP is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 23. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 0.34% upward over the past 60 days. UNP's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining two, the average beat being 2.02%. 

Landstar Systems LSTR has an Earnings ESP of +0.49% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. LSTR is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 28.  

The company's bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter is expected to benefit from robust cross-border transportation demand, as more companies shift production to Mexico to reduce costs and enhance supply-chain security. Additionally, the continued development of the company’s heavy haul services is likely to further support profitability and margin expansion.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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