United Airlines to Report Q3 Earnings: Is a Beat Ahead for the Stock?

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. UAL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 15, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has remained stable over the past 60 days at $2.64 per share. The consensus mark indicates a decline of 20.7% from the third-quarter 2024 actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $15.27 billion, indicating a 2.9% increase from the third-quarter 2024 actuals. 

UAL has an encouraging earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. The average beat is 9.3%.

United Airlines Holdings Inc Price and EPS Surprise

United Airlines Holdings Inc price-eps-surprise | United Airlines Holdings Inc Quote

Factors Likely to Have Influenced UAL’s Q3 Performance

We expect UAL's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues, driven by high passenger revenues as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes. Our estimate for passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 2.1% increase from third-quarter 2024 actuals. Meanwhile, our model estimate for other revenues is pegged at $937 million,indicating 8.3% growth from the prior-year figure.

Moreover, the company expects a strong cost performance in the September-end quarter of 2025, with aircraft fuel expenses anticipated to decline 2.1% compared to third-quarter 2024 actuals.

On the contrary, we expect geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation to weigh on UAL’s operations and weaken travel demand, especially in the international and business segments. These headwinds may have caused volatility in passenger traffic and, in turn, limited the airline’s ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth.

What Our Model Says About UAL

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for United Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

United Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +0.47% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Highlights of UAL’s Q2 Earnings

UAL's reported mixed second-quarter 2025 results, wherein the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues missed the same.

UAL's second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (excluding 90 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.87 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny but declined 6.5% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure was within the guided range of $3.25-$4.25.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few more stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. 

Union Pacific UNP has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UNP is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 23. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 0.34% upward over the past 60 days. UNP's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining two, the average beat being 2.02%. 

Delta Air Lines DAL has an Earnings ESP of +1.42% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. DAL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 9.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.60 per share, indicating a 6.7% year-over-year increase. DAL has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missing once. The average beat is 4.8%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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