Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview: Will Record Deliveries Enhance Performance?

Tesla TSLA is set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 22, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 52 cents per share and $26.27 billion, respectively.

The consensus mark for third-quarter earnings per share has declined 2 cents in the past seven days. The estimate for the bottom line implies a 27.8% contraction from the year-ago levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 4.3%.

In the last earnings season, the company surpassed earnings estimates. In the trailing four quarters, Tesla missed earnings estimates twice and beat twice, with the average negative earnings surprise being 3.65%.

Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Tesla, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote

Factors to Shape Q3 Results

Tesla delivered 497,099 cars (481,166 Model 3/Y and 15,933 other models) worldwide in the third quarter, setting a new record. The figure rose 7.4% from the year-ago quarter, after three consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline. The deliveries also beat our estimate of 435,370 units.

The EV tax credit of $7,500, which expired at the end of September, boosted Tesla’s deliveries in the quarter under review. Many customers are likely to have rushed to purchase vehicles to take advantage of the incentive, fueling demand. It wasn’t just Tesla that benefited from this “pull forward” effect. Other auto giants also logged record EV sales for the three months ending September. While Tesla doesn’t officially break down sales by region, the third-quarter jump is likely to have come from the United States. In Europe, however, the company has been facing weakening demand amid intensifying competition from both legacy automakers and Chinese EV players, alongside a backlash tied to Elon Musk’s political activities. 

We expect revenues from automotive sales to decline 5.8% in the to-be-reported quarter. Gross margins from automotive sales are expected at 16%, down 4 percentage points from the year-ago period.

Tesla is set to benefit from increasing energy generation and storage revenues, thanks to the positive reception of Megapack and Powerwall products. In the third quarter of 2025, Tesla deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage, reflecting an increase from 6.9 GWh in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and setting a new record. We expect revenues from the Energy Generation/Storage segment to be $2.93 billion, suggesting an uptick on both a sequential and a year-over-year basis. Our estimate for the Services/Other unit is pegged at $3.35 billion, implying 20.2% year-over-year growth.

What Does Our Model Say?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here.

Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of +10.08%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 5 cents above the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are a few other players from the auto space that, per our model, also have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.

Mobileye Global Inc. MBLY is set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 23. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.62% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mobileye’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 8 cents per share and $473.6 million, respectively. MBLY surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 9.41%.

BorgWarner BWA is scheduled to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.38% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BorgWarner’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.15 per share and $3.59 billion, respectively. BorgWarner surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 13.92%.

Lear Corporation LEA is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 31. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.77 per share and $5.60 billion. Lear surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 12.89%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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