Rio Tinto Reports a 1% Y/Y Increase in Q3 Iron Ore Production

Rio Tinto Group RIO reported iron ore shipments (on a 100% basis) of 84.3 million tons (Mt) for the third quarter of 2025, which was flat year over year. On a sequential basis, shipments rose 6%. This marked the second-highest third-quarter shipment since 2019. Total ron ore production for the quarter was 84.1 Mt, in line with the year-ago quarter. RIO’s share of shipments was at 71.4 Mt (down 1%) and its share in total production was 71.8 Mt (up 1%).

Bauxite production rose 8.5% to 16.4 Mt in the third quarter. Bauxite achieved its second consecutive record quarterly production, driven by Amrun operating above nameplate capacity. 

Rio Tinto’s aluminum output was up 6% year over year to 857 thousand tons. Alumina production increased 7% to 1.9 Mt, reflecting improved performance at Yarwun and Alumar. This was somewhat negated by the planned shutdown at Vaudreuil.

In the third quarter, mined copper production was 204 thousand tons, 10% higher than the year-ago quarter. Production at Kennecott was 69% lower year over year due to planned annual maintenance shutdown through September. Copper production at Escondida increased 9% year over year, aided by a 13% improvement in concentrator performance.

This was negated by a 6% decline in head grade. Oyu Tolgoi’s production was 78% higher year over year to a record 89 thousand tons, driven by continued underground ramp-up. 

Titanium dioxide slag production declined 1% from the year-ago quarter, led by weak market conditions. Production at Iron Ore Company of Canada was 11% higher on a year-over-year basis.

Rio Tinto’s Production Guidance for 2025

RIO expects Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) at the lower end of 323-338 Mt. This is due to cyclone impacts in the first quarter of 2025. 

Backed by the better-than-expected performance, the company has increased Bauxite’s  guidance to 59-61 Mt from the prior stated 57-59 Mt. This indicates higher utilization rates, particularly at Weipa. 

Alumina production is anticipated between 7.4 Mt and 7.8 Mt, while aluminum production is expected to be 3.25-3.45 Mt for 2025. Copper output is predicted to be at the higher end of the earlier stated 780-850 kt. Titanium dioxide slag production is expected to be near the lower end of 1-1.2 Mt.

RIO’s Cost Guidance for 2025

Rio Tinto expects Pilbara iron ore unit cash costs between $23.00 and $24.50 per ton. Copper C1 unit costs are forecast between $110 and $130 per pound.

Rio Tinto Share Price Performance

In a year, shares of the company have gained 7.2% compared with the industry’s 21.7% growth.

RIO’s Zacks Rank & Other Stocks to Consider

Rio Tinto currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). 

Some other top-ranked stocks from the basic materials space are DRDGOLD Limited DRD, Agnico Eagle Mines AEM and The Mosaic Company MOS. DRD and AEM currently flaunt a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and MOS has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

The consensus estimate for DRDGOLD’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.62 per share. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 13.3%. DRDGOLD’s shares have skyrocketed 175% in a year.

The consensus estimate for Agnico Eagle Mines’ 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.94 per share. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 64.1%. It has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10%. Agnico Eagle Mines’ shares have surged 121% in a year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Mosaic Company’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $3.17 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 60.1%. The Mosaic Company’s shares jumped 31.5% last year.

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