Gold Fields Skyrockets 76% in 3 Months: Play the Momentum or Cash Out?

Gold Fields Ltd. GFI has gained 76.1% in the past three months compared with the Zacks Mining - Gold industry’s 49.4% increase and the S&P 500’s modest 7.7% rise. GFI’s price performance was supported by its upbeat production results in the first half of 2025, solid cash flows and the rally in gold prices. 

Among its peers, Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV is up 33.8% while AngloGold Ashanti Plc. AU has rallied 55.9% over the past three months.

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Technical indicators show that GFI has been trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.

Let’s look at the GFI’s fundamentals to better analyze the stock.

Gold Fields Rallies on Output, Prices and Payout Boost

Gold Fields posted a strong performance in the first half of 2025, driven by operational efficiency and favorable gold prices. The average gold price rose 40% year over year to $3,281 per ounce, while gold production increased 24% to 1.136 million ounces, lifting overall revenues. Output gains were led by a ramp-up at the Salares Norte mine in Chile, which overcame winter challenges, along with steady contributions from South Deep, Cerro Corona and Gruyere.

Full-year guidance of 2.25–2.45 million ounces was reaffirmed. Salares Norte is expected to produce up to 375,000 ounces this year, reaching 580,000 ounces annually by 2026.

GFI Signals Financial Strength With Strategic Capital Moves

From a capital allocation standpoint, Gold Fields maintained a disciplined yet growth-oriented strategy. Gold Fields’ cash flows from operating activities were around $1.31 billion in the first half of 2025 compared with $0.4 billion in the first half of 2024. The increase was attributed to higher production, prices and improved cost efficiencies. 

The company significantly increased its interim dividend to 7 rand per share (equivalent to approximately 38 cents), up from 3 rand a year ago, highlighting management’s commitment to returning value to shareholders. 

At the same time, it continued to fund major capital projects, particularly the ongoing development and winterization efforts at Salares Norte. For fiscal 2025, Gold Fields has guided total capital expenditure (Capex) of approximately $1.5 billion, including both sustaining and growth of Capex.

The company is considering a share buyback program, further signaling strong financial confidence. Despite the increase in capex and some inflation-related cost pressures, Gold Fields’ balance sheet remains healthy, with manageable debt levels and solid cash generation supporting its strategic goals.

Mid-year cash and equivalents topped $1 billion, offering flexibility for operations and growth. Although net debt rose due to project investments, the net debt-to-EBITDA remains below 1x, indicating manageable leverage. The company also extended its $1.2 billion ESG-linked credit facility, aligning funding with its sustainability target. The total debt/capital of GFI is 35.44% compared with its industry’s 14.86%. The same for AngloGold is 18.56% and Franco-Nevada has zero leverage.

Gold Fields Continues to Invest to Build a Solid Portfolio

Gold Fields operates across multiple stable mining jurisdictions, including South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Chile and Peru. This geographical diversification helps mitigate political and operational risks. Unlike some of its peers with high exposure to a single region, GFI’s spread improves resilience and cash flow reliability. 

The company continues to bolster its portfolio by investing in high-quality and long-life assets. Through the 2024 acquisition of Osisko Mining, it gained full ownership of the Windfall project in Quebec, Canada.  Gold Fields is progressing the project, aiming to reach a final investment decision (FID) in the first quarter of 2026. The project is projected to yield roughly 300,000 ounces of gold per year, with an estimated all-in sustaining cost of about $758 per ounce, making it a key strategic asset within Gold Fields’ portfolio.

The acquisition of Gold Road, expected to close in mid-October, will give Gold Fields full ownership of the Gruyere gold mine in Western Australia. Gruyere is considered a Tier 1 asset, known for its large-scale, low-cost and long-life production profile. The mine, which Gold Fields currently operates under a 50:50 joint venture with Gold Road Resources, produces around 300,000 ounces of gold annually. Full ownership will allow Gold Fields to streamline operations, capture the entire cash flow from the asset and strengthen its position in the highly prospective Yamarna Belt region.

GFI’s Rising Earnings Estimates Reflect Positive Sentiments

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GFI’s fiscal 2025 earnings is currently pegged at $2.72, suggesting solid year-over-year growth of 106.1%. Earnings are expected to register roughly 27.6% growth in 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 for GFI has been revised higher over the past 60 days.

Gold Fields Trading Above Industry

Gold Fields is currently trading at a price-to-book multiple of 6.04X, above the peer group average of 2.95X and its five-year median. The price-to-book multiple for AngloGold and Franco-Nevada are 3.32X and 6.10X respectively. GFI and AU currently have a Value Score of C, while FNV has a score of F.

Final Thoughts: Hold GFI stock for Now

The company has delivered solid operational and financial performance, supported by higher production volumes, robust gold prices and disciplined cost management. The ramp-up of the Salares Norte project is expected to be a key growth driver, contributing meaningfully to output and cash flow in the coming quarters. Investors holding GFI shares should continue to do so to benefit from the solid long-term fundamentals. Additionally, the company’s commitment to shareholder returns, reflected in its increased dividends, underscores its strong cash generation.

However, considering its elevated valuation and high debt levels, new investors can wait for a better entry point. Gold Fields currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).  

You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research