Matador Resources Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

Matador Resources Company MTDR is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 21, after market close.

Let us examine the factors that are expected to have influenced the performance of the U.S.-based oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the third quarter.

Highlights of Q2 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, its adjusted earnings of $1.53 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29, primarily driven by higher total production volumes.

MTDR’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 11.85%. This is depicted in the graph below: 

Matador Resources Company Price and EPS Surprise

Matador Resources Company price-eps-surprise | Matador Resources Company Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $1.26 has witnessed one downward and one upward revision in the past seven days. The estimated figure suggests a decline of 31.8% from the prior-year reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $902.3 million indicates a 0.28% increase from the year-ago recorded figure.

Factors to Consider

Matador Resources is expected to have sustained a stable performance in the third quarter, supported by its oil-rich acreages in premier shale basins in the United States, including the Delaware Basin in southeast New Mexico and West Texas, and the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas. According to our model, the company’s oil production is expected to have grown approximately 17.5% year over year, supporting its revenues and profitability. 

However, Matador is anticipated to have faced margin pressure from softer commodity prices. Per the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), the average West Texas Intermediate spot prices for July, August and September of this year were $68.39, $64.86 and $64 per barrel, respectively. These figures were notably lower compared to $81.80, $76.68 and $70.24 per barrel in the corresponding period of the previous year. Average oil prices fell sharply during the quarter compared to the prior-year levels, likely squeezing upstream profitability despite growing production levels. 

These factors are anticipated to have impacted demand and pricing dynamics, potentially affecting Matador Resources’ quarterly performance.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for Matador Resources this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Matador Resources has an Earnings ESP of -6.1%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MTDR currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Archrock Inc. AROC currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.32% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Archrock is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Oct. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AROC’s earnings is pegged at 41 cents per share, suggesting a 46.4% increase from the prior-year reported figure.

BP plc BP currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.79% and a Zacks Rank #3.

BP is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 4. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BP’s earnings is pegged at 70 cents per share, suggesting a 15.6% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.

ConocoPhillips COP currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.99% and a Zacks Rank #3.

ConocoPhillips is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COP’s earnings is pegged at $1.38 per share, suggesting a 22.5% decline from the prior-year reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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