Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Simon Property?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Simon Property (SPG) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $2.96 a share 27 days away from its upcoming earnings release on May 5, 2025.
By taking the percentage difference between the $2.96 Most Accurate Estimate and the $2.90 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Simon Property has an Earnings ESP of +1.95%. Investors should also know that SPG is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
SPG is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Chubb (CB) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Chubb is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on April 22, 2025. CB's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.27 a share 14 days from its next earnings release.
Chubb's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.3% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.26.
SPG and CB's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG): Free Stock Analysis Report Chubb Limited (CB): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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