Salesforce's Long-Awaited Inflection is Here: Rally On!

Salesforce’s (NYSE: CRM) share price has struggled with traction because its heavy investment in agentic AI has yet to pay off. Those days are over. While revenue growth had slowed, falling below the 10% year-over-year mark for the preceding five quarters, revenue is now accelerating, and the forecasts are rising.

The primary takeaway from Salesforce’s Dreamforce event is that it has lifted its long-term forecasts, and the reason is agentic AI. An expanding ecosystem of partnerships is cementing it as the go-to source for AI-assisted CRM services, and those services are now easily found at your fingertips. 

Expanding partnerships with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Anthropic, and OpenAI highlight the company’s strength and position within the tech sector. The new deals improve access to Salesforce’s tools and AI for Salesforce’s clients, embedding models such as Gemini, Claude, and ChatGPT directly into the Agentforce 360 platform. Highlights include improved employee and consumer experiences, increased operational efficiency, and workflow. 

What does this mean for Salesforce’s revenue and earnings outlook? The company lifted its long-term target to annualized revenue exceeding $60 billion by 2030, exceeding analysts' forecasts and likely to be cautious. The estimates for agentic AI vary but tend to run very high, expecting a double-digit CAGR in the 35% to 45% range through the middle of the next decade.

In that time, the agentic AI industry will grow by a high quadruple-digit amount, underpinned by mainstream adoption, which Salesforce is well-suited to. It already accounts for roughly 90% of the Fortune 500 among its clients, making it a natural choice when they need additional services. 

Salesforce’s Free Cash Flow Outlook Drives Investor Sentiment

Salesforce is a free cash flow machine that delivers robust capital returns over time. The Dreamforce event underscored the strength, with execs forecasting a 200% increase in free cash flow over the next five years. Their confidence in the forecast is evident in the accelerated buyback program.

Management forecasts $7 billion in repurchase activity over the next six months, equating to more than 3% of the market cap, with shares trading near long-term lows. 

Aggressive buybacks are likely to continue due to the company's growth, cash flow outlook, and fortress balance sheet. 

The analysts’ response signals a shift in sentiment that will help lift CRM’s stock price as the year progresses. The first reports tracked by MarketBeat are reaffirmed ratings and price targets, amounting to an Outperform rating and a $353.75 price target.

The rating and price target are above the broader consensus, which forecasts a 30% upside from the critical support level, with the highest target at $400, which would double the upside. 

The assumption is that analysts have begun a cycle of price target increases that will drive sentiment and price action over the coming quarters. 

Institutional activity also aligns with a rising CRM share price. Data from MarketBeat shows that this influential group owns more than 80% of the stock and has accumulated throughout the year. The balance of activity is $1.50 bought for each $1 sold, providing solid support and a tailwind for the market. 

Salesforce Confirms Bottom: Poised to Fire a Strong Signal

The price action in CRM stock was bullish following the release, but it fell short of a powerful buy signal solely because of the moving averages. They provide resistance as of mid-October, but may not hold long. Besides that, the 7% increase, bullish MACD, and stochastic swings reveal a solid bottom and a market ready to move higher.

A move above the moving averages could trigger a rapid influx of capital, driving the price to $288 within weeks, if not days. In the long term, the shift in analysts' sentiment will likely lead this market to retest the 2025 highs and move to new highs. 

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The article "Salesforce’s Long-Awaited Inflection is Here: Rally On!" first appeared on MarketBeat.