What's in the Cards for CME Group This Earnings Season?

CME Group Inc. CME is expected to register a decline in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 22, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.54 billion, indicating a 2.9% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.63 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME’s third-quarter earnings has moved down 3.3% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year decrease of 1.8%.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CME Group this time. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: CME Group has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are both pegged at $2.63. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CME Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

CME Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | CME Group Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: CME Group currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Factors Likely to Shape Q3 Results

CME Group’s third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from a diverse product portfolio, increased volatility and a strong market position.

Revenues are likely to have benefited from an increase in market data and information services, clearing, transaction fees and other revenues.

Higher trading volumes across asset classes are likely to have driven clearing and transaction fees. We expect clearing and transaction fees to be $1.2 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter clearing and transaction fees is pegged at $1.2 billion.

CME reported a quarterly average daily volume of 25.3 million contracts in the third quarter, down 10% year over year. This was due to lower quarterly volumes in Interest Rates, Equities, Energy, FX products. Agricultural ADV reached 1.7 million contracts, up 6% year on year, while Metals ADV reached 0.8 million contracts, up 13% year over year. 

Market data and information services revenues are likely to have gained from price increases for certain products, as well as higher usage of certain products. We expect the figure to be $179 million, indicating a 0.5% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter market data and information services revenues is pegged at $196 million, indicating an increase of 10.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

Expenses are likely to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter due to higher compensation and benefits and technology expenses. We anticipate expenses to be $505.6 million in the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a 3.4% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three finance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE has an Earnings ESP of +4.67% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.42, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CBOE’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing in one.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +2.31% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.14, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7.5%. 

ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. KNSL has an Earnings ESP of +1.53% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.79, indicating a year-over-year increase of 14%.

KNSL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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