Nutrien Gains on Healthy Fertilizer Demand, Acquisitions & Cost Cuts

Nutrien Ltd. NTR is benefiting from healthy demand for crop nutrients, its actions to reduce costs and strategic acquisitions. Improving fertilizer prices are providing further support. 

Nutrien, which is among the prominent players in the fertilizer space along with The Mosaic Company MOS, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF and Intrepid Potash, Inc. IPI, is well-placed to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, backed by the strength in global agriculture markets. It is seeing healthy fertilizer demand in its major markets. Tight inventories are expected to support crop commodity prices in 2025. Strong demand and supply tightness have also led to an uptick in fertilizer prices this year. 
 
The company expects an increase in U.S. corn acreage in 2025 and sees strong demand for crop inputs. NTR’s second-quarter and first-half 2025 potash sales volumes reached record highs, driven by favorable potash affordability and robust consumption in North America and major offshore markets. It has raised potash sales volume guidance to 13.9-14.5 million tons, driven by anticipated higher global demand.

NTR should also gain from acquisitions and increased adoption of its digital platform. It continues to expand its footprint in Brazil through acquisitions. It is expected to continue pursuing targeted opportunities in its core markets. The company expects to utilize part of its free cash flow for incremental growth investments, including tuck-in acquisitions in the retail business in 2025.

Cost and operational efficiency initiatives are also expected to aid the company’s performance. NTR remains focused on lowering the cost of production in the potash business. The company has announced several strategic actions to reduce its controllable costs and boost free cash flow. NTR has accelerated operational efficiency and cost-saving initiatives and anticipates achieving around $200 million of total savings in 2025. The company is ahead of schedule on this cost-reduction goal.

NTR generates substantial cash flows and has a strong balance sheet, enabling it to finance its strategic growth investment, pay down debt and drive shareholder value.  At the end of the second quarter, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $1,387 million, up around 38% year over year. Cash provided by operating activities surged 40% year over year to $2,538 million for the quarter, supported by higher selling prices and sales volumes. Further, Nutrien returned $0.8 billion to its shareholders in the first half of 2025 through dividends and share buybacks.

Nutrien, expects potash sales volume in the band of 13.9–14.5 million tons for 2025, driven by anticipated higher global demand. Nitrogen sales volumes are forecast at 10.7–11.2 million tons, factoring in lower ammonia operating rates in the second half due to planned turnarounds at North American plants, following record rates in the first half.  NTR sees phosphate sales volumes in the range of 2.35–2.55 million tons, supported by improved operating rates and sales following the completion of first-half turnarounds. 

Another fertilizer heavyweight, Mosaic, recently announced preliminary segment volumes for the third quarter. Third-quarter sales volumes for the Phosphate segment were roughly 1.6 million tons. For the Potash unit, MOS said sales volumes were around 2.3 million tons.

CF Industries, in the second-quarter call, said that it expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain favorable. This is driven by strong demand through the end of 2025, especially from Brazil and India. Brazil is projected to import more than 5 million metric tons of urea, supported by high corn planting, while India’s urea stocks are about 35% lower than last year, prompting frequent tenders, per CF. 

Intrepid Potash saw a 25% increase in potash sales volumes to 69,000 tons in the second quarter. The solid increase in Intrepid Potash’s sales volumes was driven by a rise in production. IPI targets potash production of 270,000-280,000 tons for full-year 2025.

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