Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Rivian Automotive, Inc. on Investment Ideas by Antonio’s Substack by Antonio Linares. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RIVN. Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s share was trading at $14.68 as of September 30th.

Rivian has entered a critical inflection point, with positive cash from operations achieved in Q2 2025, signaling the growing viability of its vertically integrated platform. The company’s upcoming R2 model, a two-row SUV priced under $50,000, sits in the most popular U.S. vehicle segment and leverages the R1 platform at a 50% cost reduction in both materials and assembly. This cost efficiency, combined with strong demand, positions Rivian to meaningfully expand its top line while allowing much of the incremental revenue to flow through to free cash flow per share.

Rivian’s strategic shift is reinforced by its software capabilities, which now generate $372 million in annualized revenue, up sharply from $84 million last year, largely driven by a joint venture and licensing deal with Volkswagen. The partnership, which includes a $1 billion equity investment, demonstrates Rivian’s capacity to provide a scalable software stack across a wide range of vehicles, marking it as a contender alongside Tesla as the only Western companies with viable auto software platforms.

While tariffs and regulatory risks present headwinds, Rivian’s long-term opportunity lies in becoming a next-generation automotive platform that legacy OEMs can build on, similar to how Ferrari and Buick benefited after absorption by larger automakers in the 20th century. Beyond vehicles, Rivian is also incubating new mobility solutions and advancing autonomous features that could broaden its platform’s reach.

With a market capitalization of $18.5 billion and a price-to-sales ratio under 4, the market has discounted Rivian’s potential just as its fundamentals inflect. Supported by strong leadership and a clean balance sheet, Rivian now offers asymmetric upside as a world-class auto platform in the making.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) by LegitosaurusRex in November 2024, which highlighted Rivian’s disruptive mid-market potential, U.S. manufacturing advantages, and financial runway from Volkswagen’s investment. The stock has appreciated ~46% since, as the thesis partly played out. The thesis still stands. Antonio Linares shares a similar view but emphasizes Rivian’s software platform, cash flow inflection, and Volkswagen JV.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 38 hedge fund portfolios held RIVN at the end of the second quarter which was 41 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of RIVN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.