Factors You Need to Know Ahead of Murphy USA's Q3 Earnings Release

Murphy USA Inc. MUSA is set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a profit of $6.6 per share on revenues of $5.1 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that are likely to have influenced the motor fuel and convenience merchandise retailer’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. But first, it is worth taking a look at MUSA’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of MUSA’s Q2 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the El Dorado, AR-based downstream retailer company’s earnings beat the consensus mark. MUSA reported earnings of $7.36 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.82 due to higher fuel margins. However, revenues of $5 billion were down from the consensus mark by $468 million in the quarter.

MUSA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average negative surprise of 1.9%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Murphy USA Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Murphy USA Inc. price-eps-surprise | Murphy USA Inc. Quote

Trend in MUSA’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has witnessed an upward movement of 2.8% in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates an 8.3% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a 2% decline from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider Ahead of MUSA’s Q3 Release

MUSA's total revenues are expected to have suffered in the quarter to be reported. The company is a leading independent retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise in the United States.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts third-quarter revenues to decrease from the year-ago quarter’s $5.24 billion. Our model predicts that the total cost of goods sold of the company is likely to have increased to $4715.5 million, up from $4616.8 million in the year-ago period. The company believes that in the second half of the year, its volumes could fall below the low end of the annual guided range of 240,000 to 245,000 average per store month. MUSA also predicts headwinds from two of its largest categories, cigarettes and lottery, in the first half of the year.

On a positive note, the company has more than 45 new stores under construction in the third quarter, which will result in a robust end-of-year delivery and also a great start to 2026, where it expects 15 to 20 additional new store openings.

What Does Our Model Predict for MUSA?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MUSA this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

MUSA’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -2.50%.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MUSA’s Zacks Rank:  MUSA currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

TotalEnergies SE TTE has an Earnings ESP of +1.17% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

TTE is scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 30. Notably, TotalEnergies’ earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and beat the remaining one, delivering a negative average surprise of 3.4%. Valued at around $146 billion, TTE’s shares have lost 6% in a year.

Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE has an Earnings ESP of +1.27% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. CVE is slated to release earnings on Oct. 31.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVE’s 2025 earnings indicates 10.7% year-over-year growth.Valued at around $30.3 billion, CVE’s shares have fallen 1.6% in a year.

Imperial Oil Limited IMO has an Earnings ESP of +12.12% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. It is scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 31.

Imperial’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 14.9%. Valued at around $42.9 billion, IMO’s shares have gained 10.5% in a year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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