JD.com, Inc. (JD): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on JD.com, Inc. on SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets’s Substack by SixSigmaCapital. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on JD. JD.com, Inc.'s share was trading at $34.89 as of October 7th. JD’s trailing and forward P/E were 10.03 and 10.54 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

JD.com, Inc. is China’s largest technology-driven e-commerce retailer, headquartered in Beijing and a member of the NASDAQ-100 and Fortune Global 500. The company’s mission, “Making Lives Better through Technology,” underscores its focus on leveraging advanced technology, including superior supply chain and logistics infrastructure, to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency. JD’s core business, JD Retail, operates a direct-sales online platform covering electronics, home appliances, general merchandise, and fresh produce, allowing control over quality and inventory.

 Complementing this, JD Logistics provides a proprietary, efficient network of warehouses and delivery personnel covering nearly all of China, which also generates external service revenue and remains highly profitable. JD has expanded into high-growth areas such as JD Health and industrial supply chain solutions, while entering the competitive food delivery market to cross-sell and leverage logistics. Revenue is split between product sales and services—including marketplace, logistics, advertising, and healthcare—with JD Health (~80% controlled) as a notable growth driver.

Despite strong fundamentals, JD has faced operating losses recently due to heavy investment in food delivery, resulting in increased SG&A expenses, though these are expected to decline in coming quarters. JD’s valuation is historically low, trading at ~7x EV/EBITDA and ~9x FY26 projected EPS, with MorningStar implying >70% upside. Risks include intense competition from Alibaba and Pinduoduo, expansion costs, and geopolitical/regulatory uncertainties.

Management includes founder Richard Qiangdong Liu and CEO Sandy Ran Xu, who brings extensive financial expertise. JD maintains a strong balance sheet with $29.85B in cash vs. $14.07B debt, and continues capital returns through a $5B buyback program and a 2.87% dividend yield. With revenue and EBIT growth, low volatility (Beta 0.4), and medium-term technical upside toward $45, JD represents an attractive investment with improving profitability and strategic growth catalysts, while the current stock price offers an opportune entry point.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on JD.com, Inc. (JD) by BlackSwan Investor in March 2025, which highlighted its direct-sales model, logistics efficiency, food delivery expansion, and margin improvement potential. The stock has depreciated ~14% since then due to near-term investments and slower growth. The thesis still stands given JD’s strong fundamentals and undervaluation. SixSigmaCapital shares a similar view but emphasizes ecosystem growth, JD Health, and capital returns.

JD.com, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 54 hedge fund portfolios held JD at the end of the second quarter which was 66 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of JD as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.