Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL): A Bull Case Theory

 We came across a bullish thesis on Amplitude, Inc. on Value investing subreddit by NickyBeater. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AMPL. Amplitude, Inc.'s share was trading at $10.36 as of October 9th. AMPL’s forward P/E was 69.44 according to Yahoo Finance.

Amplitude ($AMPL) is a leading digital analytics company offering a best-in-class platform that enables businesses to understand user behavior within their products. Despite being highly ranked by Gartner, Forrester, and G2, the stock has been heavily penalized following a post-IPO growth deceleration during the 2023–24 tech slowdown.

After its September 2021 direct listing near the tech peak, Amplitude initially saw hyper-growth but faced headwinds as high-growth tech customers struggled, leading to elevated churn, slowing expansion revenue, and revenue growth bottoming at 6.5% in Q3 2024, with net revenue retention (NRR) dipping below 100%. This resulted in an 80% decline in the stock, leaving it trading at a deeply discounted multiple relative to peers.

The bull case rests on a clear turnaround. Revenue growth has reaccelerated for three consecutive quarters, reaching 14% in Q2 2025, with NRR recovering to 104%, signaling healthy expansion within the existing customer base. Management has strategically pivoted to enterprise clients, securing multi-year contracts that enhance revenue predictability and reduce churn. Amplitude is also expanding from a single-point solution into a multi-product platform with marketing analytics, session replay, and in-app messaging capabilities, increasing TAM and enabling cross-selling. The company’s product remains highly differentiated, offering unmatched data integration and analytics capabilities that give it an edge over legacy platforms like Adobe and smaller point solutions.

Valuation remains compelling, with the company trading at ~3.9x ARR on $335 million revenue, far below peers at 8–10x ARR, supported by a strong balance sheet of $288 million in cash and no debt. Operating near cash flow breakeven and on a path to sustainable free cash flow, Amplitude presents a rare combination of product leadership, growth reacceleration, and financial strength, making it an attractive investment with multiple catalysts for upside, including potential private equity interest.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) by sketchfag in February 2025, highlighting product-led growth, adoption by enterprises like Shopify, AI-driven platform enhancements, and steady revenue growth. The stock has depreciated approximately by 28.25% since coverage due to the tech slowdown. The thesis still stands as Amplitude’s product leadership remains strong. NickyBeater shares a similar perspective but emphasizes revenue re-acceleration, enterprise focus, and multi-product expansion.

Amplitude, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 28 hedge fund portfolios held AMPL at the end of the second quarter which was 29 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of AMPL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.