How Will HOOD's Event Contracts Business Fare Amid Rising Competition?

Robinhood Markets’ HOOD fast-growing event-contracts business faces competition from DraftKings Inc.’s DKNG entry into the prediction market through its planned acquisition of Railbird Technologies Inc. and its wholly owned subsidiary, Railbird Exchange, LLC. Both are vying for dominance in a budding but lucrative market at the intersection of financial speculation and sports-style wagering.

DraftKings’ Railbird acquisition gives it a CFTC-regulated foothold to offer event prediction trading, even in states like California and Texas that ban sports betting. The upcoming “DraftKings Predictions” app will target retail users, extending its brand beyond sportsbooks and reducing reliance on state-dependent, lower-margin betting markets.

By contrast, Robinhood holds a strong first-mover edge through its Kalshi partnership, offering 100+ CFTC-regulated event contracts to 12 million monthly users, nearly double DraftKings’ base. Its seamless integration with stock and crypto trading appeals to non-gamblers. Earlier this month, VP JB Mackenzie, in an interview with Reuters, stated that Robinhood may pursue acquisitions in prediction markets.

DraftKings’ entry will heighten competition with Robinhood, as both target similar young, mobile, risk-tolerant users. While Robinhood offers lower fees and broader access, DraftKings may face regulatory limits but will differentiate through its entertainment-focused, gamified approach to event-based prediction markets.

DraftKings’ entry validates prediction markets as a mainstream asset class poised for multi-billion-dollar growth across politics, entertainment and macro events. The move pressures Robinhood to expand features or pursue M&A to maintain scale. While HOOD still leads in regulation and ecosystem strength, DraftKings’ strong brand, sports audience and CFTC approval make it a formidable new rival.

How Does Interactive Brokers Fare Compared to HOOD?

Interactive Brokers’ IBKR Forecast business has become one of the fastest-growing segments in its product suite during 2025, scaling far beyond its pilot stages and emerging as a credible institutional-grade competitor in the global prediction market space. The platform operates under the ForecastEx LLC subsidiary, regulated by the CFTC, and offers trading nearly 24 hours a day, six days a week across global regions.

In the third quarter of 2025, Interactive Brokers reported record net revenues of $1.66 billion, with management highlighting the Forecast Contracts business as a key growth driver. The number of tradable Forecast events were more than 8,200 in the quarter, up 27% sequentially.

Unlike Robinhood or DraftKings, which focus heavily on sports or entertainment events, Interactive Brokers’ Forecast products emphasize economic, financial, government and climate indicators, aligning with the company’s more analytical and professional trading demographic.

Robinhood’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimate Analysis

Over the past year, shares of HOOD have skyrocketed a whopping 367.4%. In the same time frame, the industry has surged 33.4%.

Given the impressive price performance, HOOD shares are currently trading at a massive premium to the industry. The company has a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 15.43X compared with the industry average of 2.93X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Robinhood’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 64.2% and 17%, respectively. In the past week, earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward to $1.79 and $2.09, respectively.

HOOD currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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