Magnolia Oil & Gas to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation MGY is set to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 29. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 41 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $319.2 million.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MGY’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of MGY’s Q2 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the Houston, TX-based oil and gas exploration and production company reported a net profit of 43 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents. This was primarily driven by a healthy increase in production volumes, supported by strong well productivity in the company’s Giddings asset. The company’s total revenues were $319 million, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $314 million. MGY’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 6.5%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Price and EPS Surprise

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp price-eps-surprise | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Quote

Trend in MGY’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has witnessed an upward movement of 2.5% in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 21.2% year-over-year decrease. Additionally, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a decline of 4.2% from the year-ago period’s level.

Factors to Consider Ahead of MGY’s Q3 Release

Magnolia Oil & Gas generates revenues by acquiring land or leases with oil and natural gas reserves, primarily in South Texas. The firm explores these properties, drills wells to extract the oil and gas, and sells the resources to other energy companies. By focusing on areas such as the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk, MGY profits from the difference between the costs of drilling and production and the income from selling the extracted oil and gas.

MGY's total revenues are expected to have suffered in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts third-quarter revenues to decrease from the year-ago quarter’s $333.1 million. Per our model, while total production volumes are expected to have increased year over year, the total realized price is likely to have declined in the forthcoming quarter. This decrease in the average sales prices may affect the company’s profitability. On the cost side, we expect MGY’s gathering, transportation and processing expenses to reach $16.2 million in the third quarter, which is 51.4% up from the year-ago quarter’s level of $10.7 million.

On a positive note, our model predicts that the company’s production volumes will get boosted in the third quarter, along with an increase in the average realized price of natural gas liquids and natural gas, which may create a positive trajectory for the company.

What Does Our Model Predict for MGY?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Magnolia Oil & Gas this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of MGY: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +2.06%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MGY’s Zacks Rank: MGY currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

TotalEnergies SE TTE has an Earnings ESP of +1.17% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

TTE is scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 30. Notably, TotalEnergies’ earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and beat the remaining one, delivering a negative average surprise of 3.4%. Valued at around $146 billion, TTE’s shares have lost 4% in a year.

Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE has an Earnings ESP of +1.27% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. CVE is slated to release earnings on Oct. 31.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVE’s 2025 earnings indicates 10.7% year-over-year growth.Valued at around $30 billion, CVE’s shares have fallen 1.1% in a year.

Imperial Oil Limited IMO has an Earnings ESP of +12.12% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. It is scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 31.

Imperial’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 14.9%. Valued at around $42.4 billion, IMO’s shares have gained 15% in a year.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research