Masco Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

Masco Corporation MAS is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings and net sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.4% and 2.3%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, the top line declined 1.9%, while the bottom line increased 8.3%.

Masco’s earnings topped the consensus mark in two of the last four quarters, met on one occasion and missed on the remaining occasion, the average surprise being 4%.

MAS’ Estimate Revision Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) has remained unchanged at $1.02 over the past 30 days. But the estimated figure indicates a 5.6% decline from the year-ago EPS of $1.08.

Masco Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Masco Corporation price-eps-surprise | Masco Corporation Quote

The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $1.94 billion, which indicates a 2.3% decline from the prior-year quarter’s figure of $1.98 billion.

Factors Likely to Define Masco’s Q3 Results

Sales Trends

In the to-be-reported quarter, Masco’s top line is likely to have declined year over year due to reduced contributions from the Decorative Architectural Products segment, which accounted for 36% of total net sales in the second quarter of 2025. The segment is expected to have been affected by lower sales volume and adverse impacts from the divestiture of its Kichler business.

Furthermore, demand for DIY paint is likely to have remained soft across the industry, caused by low existing home turnover and a dampened macroeconomic environment. This continued weakness in DIY demand is expected to have weighed on the segment’s overall performance during the quarter.

However, sales improvement in the Plumbing Products segment (which accounted for 64% of total net sales in the second quarter of 2025) is likely to have supported the top line from declining further amid macro uncertainties. This segment is expected to have benefited from higher net selling prices, partially offset by an unfavorable sales mix.

Segment-wise, our model expects the Plumbing Products segment’s net sales to inch up 3.2% year over year to $1.26 billion. The expectations for the Decorative Architectural Products segment’s net sales indicate a 12.8% decline year over year to $666.6 million.

Geographically, we expect net sales in North America (which accounted for 79.9% of second-quarter 2025 total net sales) to decline 4.6% year over year to $1.52 billion. Net sales in International (which accounted for 20.1% of second-quarter 2025 total net sales) are anticipated to increase year over year by 3.9% to $403.1 million.

Margins

The company’s bottom line in the third quarter of 2025 is likely to have declined year over year due to higher costs associated with tariffs and commodity inflation. Masco continues to face additional expenses from the 30% incremental China tariffs and global reciprocal tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are expected to have increased material and input costs during the quarter. Although the company has been implementing mitigation efforts such as cost reductions, pricing actions and sourcing shifts, these measures are unlikely to have fully offset the near-term impact.

In addition, unfavorable sales mix and lower volume in the Decorative Architectural Products segment are expected to have weighed on profitability. The ongoing weakness in the DIY paint category, caused by historically low existing home sales and soft consumer demand, is also likely to have pressured the overall performance.

Segment-wise, we expect the adjusted operating margin for Plumbing Products and Decorative Architectural Products to decline year over year by 180 basis points (bps) to 18.1% and 150 bps to 16.6%, respectively.

What Our Model Unveils for MAS

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Masco this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

MAS’ Earnings ESP: MAS has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank of MAS: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the respective quarters to be reported.

TopBuild Corp. BLD has an Earnings ESP of +1.89% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 2.8%. TopBuild’s earnings for the third quarter of 2025 are expected to decrease 8.1%.

EMCOR Group, Inc. EME has an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

For the quarter to be reported, EMCOR’s earnings are expected to increase 14.7%. EMCOR’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 16.8%. 

Armstrong World Industries, Inc. AWI currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 9.9%. Armstrong World’s earnings for the third quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 9.9%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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