Can Improving Servicing Revenues Stabilize RITM's Q3 Earnings?

Global asset manager Rithm Capital Corp. RITM is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at 54 cents per shareon revenues of $1 billion. 

The third-quarter earnings estimate increased by 2 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection is in line with the year-ago level. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year rise of 61.5%.

Yet, for full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rithm Capital’s revenues is pegged at $4.3 billion, implying a decrease of 17.9% year over year. The consensus mark for the current year EPS is pegged at $2.15, indicating a 2.4% year-over-year growth.

Rithm Capital beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 20.1%.

Rithm Capital Corp. Price and EPS Surprise

Rithm Capital Corp. price-eps-surprise | Rithm Capital Corp. Quote

Q3 Earnings Whispers for Rithm Capital

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for RITM this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

RITM has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

What’s Shaping Rithm Capital’s Q3 Results?

The consensus mark for asset management revenues is pegged at $92.2 million, up 13.8% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for net servicing revenues is pegged at $413.9 million, signaling a massive improvement from a year ago. Diversified platform strength and strategic partnerships are expected to have supported its third-quarter results.

The growing profitability of its Newrez business is likely to have aided its Origination & Servicing segment. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter net gain on originated residential mortgage loans indicates a 12.3% year-over-year jump.

However, increased G&A expenses, compensation and benefits are likely to have increased total expenses, tempering profit growth, making an earnings beat uncertain. Nevertheless, its hedging strategies are likely to have provided some protection from the burden of interest expenses.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter interest income indicates a 11.9% year-over-year decline. Also, the consensus mark for other revenues indicates a 45.8% year-over-year decline.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Rithm Capital, here are some companies from the broader Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Franklin Resources, Inc. BEN has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Franklin Resources’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 57 cents per share, which increased 3 cents over the past month. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for Franklin Resources’ revenues is pegged at $2.12 billion.  

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP has an Earnings ESP of +2.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ameriprise Financial’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $9.60 per share, which indicates 8.7% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for Ameriprise Financial’s revenues is pegged at $4.52 billion, a 4% increase from a year ago.

Brookfield Corporation BN has an Earnings ESP of +3.42% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Brookfield’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 68 cents per share, a 21.4% jump from a year ago. Brookfield beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 8.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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