How Will These 5 Energy Stocks Perform This Earnings Season?

By Turjya Saha | October 28, 2025, 10:58 AM

The Oil/Energy sector faced a mixed bag of market dynamics in the third quarter of 2025. On one hand, crude oil prices saw a decline, weighed down by an oversupply and broader economic uncertainties. On the other hand, natural gas prices climbed, fueled by tighter supply conditions and geopolitical factors. This divergence has set the stage for a challenging earnings season, as energy companies navigate these shifting market forces.

As they prepare to share their third-quarter results, investors are keen to see how these companies are responding to the volatility — whether through measures like cost control, portfolio realignments, or a focus on seizing opportunities within the growing energy market.

Market Forces Diverge: Oil Drops, Natural Gas Rises in Q3 2025

During the third quarter of 2025, crude oil prices experienced a significant dip, with West Texas Intermediate averaging $65.74 per barrel, reflecting a 14% decrease from $76.24 in the same quarter of 2024. This downturn was largely the result of an oversupply in the market, as OPEC+ countries scaled back their earlier production cuts, contributing an additional 1.3 million barrels per day to the global oil supply. Other factors contributing to the price drop included intensifying trade disputes between the United States and China, renewed tariff threats on imports from India, and lower-than-expected industrial demand. Additionally, President Trump's policies to keep energy costs in check to curb inflation placed further pressure on oil prices. The International Energy Agency's revised global consumption forecast, which predicted slower growth, further exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market.

In contrast, natural gas prices experienced a notable increase. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $3.03 per million British thermal units (“MMBtu”) in third-quarter 2025, marking a 44% rise from $2.11 per MMBtu during the same period in 2024. This surge was driven by a combination of tight supply conditions and robust demand. Geopolitical instability, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, disrupted Middle East supply and reduced LNG exports. U.S. natural gas inventories remained below their typical five-year averages, and strong LNG exports to Europe and Asia helped maintain a tighter domestic supply. In addition, concerns over potential blockages in key shipping routes and the impact of tariffs on LNG equipment led to higher production costs, further bolstering the upward trend in natural gas prices during the quarter.

Q3 Earnings Snapshot: Energy Sector Drags on Market Performance

The Oil/Energy sector continues to trail the broader market this earnings season, struggling with profitability amid uncertain pricing and demand conditions. According to the latest Zacks Earnings Trends report, earnings for the third quarter are expected to drop 6.4% year over year. While this marks a recovery from the second quarter's 16.9% decline, it still falls far short of the S&P 500's robust 7.3% growth. Early results from the 12.5% of energy companies that have reported offer some insight. While 66.7% surpassed EPS forecasts and all of them exceeded revenue expectations, the sector as a whole is still struggling with weak revenue growth.

The sector's underperformance is weighing on the broader index. Excluding Energy, the S&P 500's earnings growth rises to 8%. The revenue picture is similarly weak, with a 1.0% decline for Energy contrasting sharply with the market's 6.7% gain.

This pressure is driven by a perfect storm of volatile commodity prices, fluctuating global demand, and squeezed margins. The contrast becomes even starker when compared to market leaders: while Energy contracts, sectors like Aerospace (+248.6%), Finance (+23.4%), and Technology (+11.5%) are posting explosive growth.

For investors, this divergence highlights the need for selectivity. The focus should be on companies that demonstrate superior operational efficiency, stringent cost control, and strategic positioning — particularly those with diversified portfolios or strengths in niches like natural gas — to navigate ongoing sector turbulence.

Energy Earnings in Focus: Preparing for Q3 Results

In light of these conditions, let’s examine the positioning of the following oil and energy companies ahead of their third-quarter earnings announcements on Oct. 29, and assess their ability to handle the current market challenges.

Our proprietary model indicates that a company needs to have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.

Antero Midstream AM is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell.The chances of the Denver, CO-based oil and gas storage and transportation company delivering an earnings beat this time around are high, as it currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 25 cents per share, suggesting a 19.05% increase from the prior-year reported figure. In terms of earnings surprises, Antero Midstream’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, matched the estimate in one, and missed in the other one, resulting in an average surprise of 1.13%.