Vertex Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?

We expect Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX to surpass expectations when it reports its third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 3, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $3.04 billion, while the same for earnings is $4.55 per share.

Let’s see how things might have shaped up before the announcement.

Factors Likely to Influence VRTX's Q3 Results

Vertex’s cystic franchise (“CF”) sales have been growing, driven by higher sales of its blockbuster CF medicine, Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe), in younger age groups.

The company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have been driven by strong demand for Trikafta/Kaftrio in the United States.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are currently pegged at $2.57 billion and $2.56 billion, respectively.

However, higher Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are likely to have caused sales erosion of VRTX’s other CF drugs — Symdeko (marketed as Symkevi in Europe), Orkambi and Kalydeco.

Vertex’s fifth CF medicine, Alyftrek (vanza triple), was approved by the FDA last December and by the European Commission in July. Incremental sales from Alyftrek are likely to have boosted Vertex’s top line in the to be reported quarter.

On the second-quarter conference call, management stated that it is seeing a steady uptake from all patient groups who are eligible for treatment with Alyftrek in the United States.

Year to date, shares of Vertex have increased 4.3% compared with the industry’s rally of 9.3%.

VRTX’s Other New Products Sales Improving

Vertex and partner CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRSP one-shot gene therapy, Casgevy, was approved in late 2023/early 2024 for two blood disorders — sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.

Vertex leads the global development and commercialization of Casgevy under the terms of the 2021 agreement, with support from CRISPR Therapeutics.

Vertex recorded $30.4 million in sales from Casgevy in the last reported quarter, reflecting a 114.1% sequential increase. Sales of Casgevy are expected to have continued to improve sequentially in the third quarter of 2025. The company has been securing reimbursement and access to Casgevy globally.

VRTX’s novel non-opioid pain medicine Journavx (suzetrigine) was approved by the FDA in January 2025. In the last reported quarter, the pain drug generated sales worth $12 million. Management expects higher sales from Journavx in the second half due to gains in sustainable payer coverage.

VRTX’s Recent Pipeline Updates

In August 2025, Vertex’s phase II study on the oral formulation of next-gen Nav1.8 inhibitor, VX-993, for treating acute pain after bunionectomy surgery did not show a statistically significant improvement on the primary endpoint. Following the disappointing results, the company decided not to advance VX-993 into pivotal development as a monotherapy for acute pain, as it felt that it would not be superior to its other NaV1.8 inhibitors.

VX-993 (oral formulation) is also being evaluated in a separate phase II study for treating diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), a form of peripheral neuropathic pain caused by damage to nerves. An update on the same is expected on the upcoming earnings call.

Updates related to Vertex’s other pipeline candidates, which are in mid- to late-stage studies for treating other diseases like APOL1-mediated kidney diseases, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and cell therapy for type 1 diabetes, are also expected on the upcoming earnings call.

VRTX's Earnings Surprise History

Vertex’s earnings performance has been mixed over the trailing four quarters. The company beat earnings estimates in two of the last four reported quarters while missing the same on the remaining two occasions, delivering an earnings surprise of 2.15%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings estimates by 6.60%.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Quote

What Our Model Predicts for VRTX

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

VRTX’s Earnings ESP: Vertex’s Earnings ESP is +0.57% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $4.58, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which is pegged at $4.55.

VRTX’s Zacks Rank: Vertex currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Exact Sciences EXAS has an Earnings ESP of +56.25% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

Shares of EXAS have increased 13% year to date. EXAS beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 329.87%. Exact Sciences is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 3.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY has an Earnings ESP of +25.79% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of ALNY have rallied 103.4% year to date. Alnylam beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters, while meeting the same in the remaining quarter, delivering an average surprise of 348.36%. ALNY is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 30.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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