AI Lending Push, New Verticals Rise: Will Upstart Stay Ahead in Q3?

As Upstart Holdings UPST approaches its third-quarter results, attention is turning to whether its revenue expansion can sustain after an exceptionally strong rebound. Management has guided for third-quarter 2025 revenues of roughly $280 million, with continued strength in fee-based income and contribution margins expected to hold around 58%. That projection implies steady demand from lending partners and rising borrower engagement, supported by an improving funding backdrop. The quarter will also show whether new verticals, particularly Auto and Home, can keep fueling top-line growth.

The optimism follows a standout second quarter, in which Upstart’s total revenues grew 102% year over year to $257 million, propelled by surging loan transactions and model-driven efficiency. In the second quarter, 372,599 loans were originated, which is up 159% from the prior year and 55% sequentially, representing just more than 250,000 new borrowers. Loan originations reached about $2.8 billion, the highest in three years, reflecting broader adoption of its AI lending platform and improved borrower conversion rates.

Upstart’s latest underwriting model, Model 22, played a major role in that momentum. It lifted conversion rates from 19.1% in the first quarter to 23.9% in the second quarter, boosting both approval and origination volumes. The resulting scale helped increase revenues, while tighter cost controls sustained a robust contribution margin near record levels.

Product diversification remains another driver of revenue growth. Auto originations jumped 87% sequentially, Home originations rose 67%, and smaller-dollar loans expanded 40%, together representing more than 10% of total originations.

With third-quarter guidance suggesting continued revenue traction, investors will be watching whether Upstart’s model improvements and broader product mix can keep transaction momentum climbing into year-end. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $281.02 million, up 73.3% year over year, with transaction originations of $3.2 billion.

UPST: Peer Moves

LendingClub Corporation LC delivered a solid third quarter in 2025, as loan originations climbed 37% year over year to $2.6 billion and revenues advanced 32% to $266.2 million. LendingClub’s disciplined credit management drove a 12.4% return on equity, highlighting the company’s strong profitability and efficiency, making LendingClub well-positioned for growth.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. SOFI posted record third-quarter 2025 net revenues of $961.6 million, up 38% year over year. SoFi’s adjusted net revenues reached $949.6 million, while adjusted EBITDA surged 49% to $276.9 million. SoFi also expanded its member base by 35% to 12.6 million, and products rose 36% to 18.6 million, reinforcing strong growth momentum across products and services.

Upstart’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of Upstart have declined 5.7% in the past six months, underperforming both the broader industry and the S&P 500 composite.

From a valuation perspective, we note that Upstart shares are currently overvalued, as suggested by the Value Score of F.

In terms of forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S), Upstart is currently trading at 3.51X, which is at a premium to the industry average of 3.33X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2025 and 2026 EPS has been revised marginally upward over the past months. However, the figures suggest significant increases year over year.

Currently, Upstart carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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