What Happened?
Shares of real estate investment trust Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE:ABR) fell 3.3% in the afternoon session after an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered the price target for the stock, adding to investor concerns following the company's recent third-quarter results. The financial services firm reduced its price target on Arbor Realty from $12.00 to $11.00, while maintaining a "Market Perform" rating. This move came after Arbor reported a significant revenue miss for its third quarter. Revenue fell to $112.4 million, well short of the $154.9 million that was expected. The results also showed a decline from the same period in the previous year, with net income and distributable earnings both falling. Adding to the negative picture, the company disclosed an increase in non-performing loans, which grew from nineteen to twenty-five, signaling rising credit issues.
The shares closed the day at $9.81, down 2.7% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Arbor Realty Trust’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 7 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock dropped 15% on the news that the company reported disappointing third-quarter 2025 results that missed Wall Street's top-line expectations. The company generated revenue of $112.4 million, a 28.2% year-over-year decline and well below analysts' consensus estimate of $151.4 million. The miss was even more pronounced in its core lending operations, as net interest income plummeted 56.9% from the prior year to $38.27 million, falling 47% short of expectations. While Arbor's GAAP earnings of $0.20 per share narrowly beat forecasts, the figure was down significantly from $0.31 in the same quarter last year. Overall, the market's sharp negative reaction suggested investors were focused on the steep deterioration in revenue and income rather than the minor earnings beat.
Arbor Realty Trust is down 28.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $9.84 per share, it is trading 37.1% below its 52-week high of $15.64 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Arbor Realty Trust’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $780.33.
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